A surge in international recognitions of Palestinian statehood represents a diplomatic breakthrough, but entrenched geographical fragmentation and political obstacles severely undermine its viability, according to an analysis by Nils Mallock of King’s College London. Published in The Conversation, Mallock highlights how contested borders—from West Bank hilltops to Gaza’s ruins—continue to thwart a cohesive territory, a core requirement under international law. Recent moves by countries like Ireland, Spain, Norway, and others in 2024 and 2025 have affirmed Palestinian sovereignty, yet the physical and political realities on the ground pose formidable challenges.

Historical borders trace back to the 1947 UN partition plan, which proposed semi-contiguous Jewish and Arab states with Jerusalem internationalised. The 1948 war confined Palestinians to the disjointed West Bank and Gaza Strip under Jordanian and Egyptian control, establishing the “Green Line” as pre-1967 boundaries still recognised internationally.

Israel’s 1967 Six-Day War occupation tripled its territory, annexing East Jerusalem and initiating illegal settlements that have proliferated, fragmenting the West Bank into Areas A, B, and C under the Oslo Accords. The 2000s separation barrier further encroached, transforming the region into a disjointed “archipelago” rather than a unified state.

Mallock’s research, using satellite imagery, reveals a 72% expansion in settlement built-up areas from 88 to 151 square kilometres between 2014 and 2024, with hundreds more approved post-October 7, 2023. Accompanied by military infrastructure and checkpoints, these developments restrict Palestinian movement, fuel economic stagnation, and escalate violence.

Surveys of over 8,000 Palestinians indicate proximity to settlements doubles high-risk actions and boosts support for violence, driven by moral outrage. The E1 project near Jerusalem exemplifies this, potentially bisecting the West Bank and “erasing” statehood prospects, as stated by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, though it heightens insecurity.

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Gaza’s post-conflict reconstruction and integration remain critical, yet a leadership vacuum persists:32% of Gazans feel unrepresented, Hamas is decimated and proscribed by nations like the UK, and the Palestinian Authority (PA) faces corruption allegations. A reformed PA could unify territories, but scepticism abounds.

Mallock urges recognition to confront settlements diplomatically, warning that without addressing these cycles, statehood risks becoming symbolic. The choice, he argues, is between meaningless borders and viable solutions benefiting both Palestinians and Israelis.

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