Airbus has lowered its 20-year forecast for global passenger aircraft deliveries by 1%, reflecting growing uncertainty caused by the Iran conflict, higher oil prices and trade concerns. The European aircraft manufacturer said it still expects strong long-term demand for commercial jets, with Asia projected to account for nearly half of all deliveries, but recent geopolitical and economic pressures have weakened its earlier growth expectations.

Airbus now expects the aviation industry to require 42,060 passenger aircraft between 2026 and 2045, down 1% from its previous rolling 20-year forecast. The projection covers demand across the entire industry, including aircraft supplied by rival Boeing and emerging manufacturers from China. The revised estimate includes 33,920 single-aisle aircraft and 8,140 wide-body or long-haul jets, with the latter figure also down 1% from the previous forecast.

The weaker outlook comes as airlines reconsider capacity expansion plans amid rising fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict. Airbus said the projected demand would be only enough to broadly support the announced production plans of Airbus and Boeing while leaving room for China's C919 programme. The forecast suggests that the severe aircraft shortages experienced by the industry in recent years could gradually ease as production increases.

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Airbus expects replacement demand to account for a larger share of future aircraft deliveries as airlines retire ageing fleets. The company now estimates that 47% of passenger jet deliveries will replace older aircraft, compared with 45% in its previous forecast. It also revised its headline annual passenger traffic growth estimate to 3.9%, although officials said the comparable figure represented a reduction from an earlier 4.1% projection.

India is expected to remain the world's fastest-growing major air transport market, with Airbus raising its forecast for annual domestic traffic growth to 9.1% from 8.9%. In contrast, the company lowered its growth projection for China's domestic aviation market to 4.7% from 5.4%. The Middle East is also expected to continue recovering strongly as major Gulf aviation hubs return to normal traffic levels despite continued regional uncertainty.

Airbus said the aviation industry has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to withstand major disruptions, including the COVID-19 pandemic, financial crises and the September 11 attacks. However, the company noted that the sector is gradually maturing as air travel expands, leading to slower long-term growth rates in some markets. Airbus is also placing greater emphasis on direct connections between secondary cities, highlighting aircraft such as the A220 and A321XLR that can bypass major international hubs.

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