March 2026 has registered as one of the warmest months on record globally, with NASA‑linked U.S. data showing that March surface temperatures were about 1.31°C above the 20th‑century average, tying with 2024 as the second‑warmest such month in the 1850–2026 record, just behind 2025. Heatwaves in the United States and unusually mild conditions across many regions contributed to a string of daily record highs, sharpening concerns that the planet is entering a new phase of intense warming.

At the same time, the global sea surface has reached its second‑warmest levels on record for March, with the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reporting an average of 20.97°C, just short of the 2024 peak during the last El Niño. This near‑record warmth is being seen as a key signal that the climate system is primed for the return of El Niño, as elevated ocean heat in the equatorial Pacific helps fuel the shift from the cool La Niña phase that has dominated the last few years.

Climate agencies, including the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, now estimate roughly a 60% chance that El Niño will emerge in June–August 2026 and persist through the end of the year. Their outlook is based on rising subsurface Pacific heat, weakening trade winds, and model forecasts that point to a neutral ENSO phase in spring, followed by a transition into El Niño‑like conditions by late summer.

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If El Niño develops as expected, it could amplify existing heat trends, influencing everything from tropical cyclone patterns to monsoon behaviour in Asia and drought or flooding risks in other regions. For countries dependent on rain‑fed agriculture, including India, an El Niño year often raises the spectre of weaker or delayed monsoon rains, although the exact impact this time will depend on how strong the event becomes and how it interacts with other atmospheric drivers.

Taken together, the record‑level warmth in both land and ocean temperatures in March underline that the world is entering a period of heightened climate volatility, with the approaching El Niño acting less like a surprise and more like yet another layer on top of an already overheated system. Governments and scientists are now focusing on sharpening seasonal forecasts and early‑warning systems to brace for the potential for more extreme heat, storms, and rainfall anomalies in the months ahead.

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