The global memory market is bracing for continued sharp price increases in 2026, driven by persistent shortages in DRAM and NAND flash amid surging demand from artificial intelligence (AI) applications and data center expansion. According to Counterpoint Research's January 2026 Memory Price Tracker, DRAM prices surged 40 to 50 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a 64GB RDIMM module rising from approximately $255 in Q3 to $450 by year-end—a 75 percent jump. Analysts forecast another potential 50 percent increase in the first quarter of 2026, pushing the same module toward $700 by March, with per-GB costs possibly doubling the 2018 peak of around $1 to as high as $1.95.

The price escalation stems primarily from explosive demand for high-bandwidth memory in AI servers, which has outpaced supply and constrained production capacity across major manufacturers. This structural shift is significantly altering the Bill of Materials (BoM) for consumer electronics, particularly premium smartphones. Counterpoint notes that memory components now account for over 10 percent of the BoM for devices like the iPhone 17 Pro Max, with top variants likely seeing even higher proportions. If trends persist, smartphones equipped with 16–24GB LPDDR5X RAM and 512GB–1TB UFS 4.0 storage could see memory contributing 20 percent or more to total BoM costs—more than double the roughly 8 percent share observed in the iPhone 12 Pro Max five years ago.

The ripple effects are expected to reach end consumers through higher device prices. During the ongoing Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2026, Samsung's President and Chief Marketing Officer Won-Jin Lee acknowledged the worsening memory chip shortage and indicated that the company may need to adjust pricing for its upcoming products. Industry observers anticipate similar responses from other major smartphone brands, as elevated component costs force manufacturers to pass on increases or absorb margins to maintain competitiveness in a price-sensitive market.

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The shortage highlights broader challenges in the semiconductor supply chain, where AI-driven server needs have diverted capacity from consumer-grade memory production. While some relief may come from expanded fab investments in the medium term, analysts warn that 2026 is likely to remain volatile, with the potential for prices to exceed previous historical highs. This development underscores the growing interdependence between AI infrastructure growth and consumer electronics pricing, potentially marking the start of a new era of elevated costs for memory-intensive devices.

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