With five MLAs in the Bihar Assembly, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is poised to play a potentially decisive role in the upcoming Rajya Sabha election scheduled for March 16. The party’s legislative strength, though modest, could prove crucial in a closely contested poll where every vote carries weight.

AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi has not publicly declared the party’s stance, but political observers say its support could influence the arithmetic of the Upper House contest. The Rajya Sabha elections are determined by proportional representation through the single transferable vote system, meaning parties must carefully marshal their numbers to ensure victory for their nominees.

In the current Assembly configuration, major alliances are assessing their vote shares to secure the required quota. With margins expected to be tight, smaller parties and independents often emerge as key players. AIMIM’s five legislators could tilt the balance in favour of either the ruling coalition or the opposition bloc, depending on how negotiations unfold in the days leading up to polling.

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The March 16 election comes amid shifting political equations in Bihar, where alliances have been fluid in recent years. Parties are engaged in backchannel discussions to consolidate support and avoid cross-voting, which can alter outcomes under the preferential voting system used for Rajya Sabha polls.

Political analysts note that while AIMIM’s numbers may not independently determine the result, they enhance the party’s bargaining power and visibility in state politics. As the deadline approaches, attention is likely to remain fixed on Owaisi’s next move and whether his party chooses to align strategically or maintain a neutral stance in the high-stakes contest.

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