Poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor, founder of the Jan Suraaj Party, made a bold prediction at NDTV's Bihar Power Play Conclave on Saturday, stating that his outfit will either secure fewer than 10 seats or more than 150 in the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections. Addressing NDTV Editor-in-Chief Rahul Kanwal, Managing Editor Padmaja Joshi, and senior Bihar bureau chief Prabhakar Kumar, Kishor framed the outcome as a binary leap of faith for voters weary of prolonged hopelessness. "People have seen Jan Suraaj as an alternative, but voting requires a leap of faith," he said, emphasising that leaders are expected to project victory, yet his assessment hinges on whether Biharis embrace change decisively or stick with the status quo. With polls scheduled for November 6 and 11 and results on November 14, Kishor's all-or-nothing forecast underscores the high stakes for his debut electoral foray in the 243-seat assembly.

Jan Suraaj, launched in 2022 after Kishor's padyatra across Bihar, is contesting all 243 seats independently, positioning itself as a fresh alternative to the entrenched NDA (BJP-JD(U)) and Mahagathbandhan (RJD-Congress-Left) alliances. Kishor, who orchestrated victories for Narendra Modi in 2012 and Nitish Kumar in 2010 before a fallout, has vowed to quit politics if JD(U) crosses 25 seats, predicting a rout for the ruling coalition amid anti-incumbency against Kumar's frequent alliance switches. Recent opinion polls, like the Times Now-JVC survey from August 2025, project Jan Suraaj at 13% vote share—enough for a surprise in Left and upper-caste pockets but short of majority territory—while forecasting NDA at 40-49% and Mahagathbandhan at 36-38%. Bypoll losses in October, where Jan Suraaj forfeited deposits in three of four seats, temper optimism, yet Kishor dismisses them as teething issues for a nascent party.

Kishor's confidence stems from his grassroots mobilisation, including a 3,000-km foot march that engaged over 10 million people on issues like education reform, unemployment, and scrapping Bihar's alcohol ban to fund schools. He envisions Jan Suraaj forming a government by 2025, transforming Bihar into a middle-income state by 2029-30 through revenue from liquor policy reversal—potentially generating Rs 15,000 crore annually. However, the strategist-turned-candidate, who opted out of contesting to focus on organisation, faces scepticism over his polarising image and the state's caste-driven voting patterns. Surveys show Tejashwi Yadav leading CM preferences at 33-36%, with Kishor at 9-23%, highlighting the challenge of converting anti-establishment sentiment into votes among youth (18-35 demographic, 40% of electorate) frustrated by 7.6% unemployment.

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The conclave remarks align with Kishor's earlier predictions, including a July 2025 vow that NDA won't return and a September assurance of sweeping Left bastions. As campaigning peaks with star rallies—Modi for NDA and Rahul Gandhi for INDIA—Jan Suraaj's youth brigade and women-focused manifesto could disrupt the bipolar contest, especially in 50-60 winnable seats per internal estimates. Yet, with 29 parties in the fray and NOTA at 2-3%, fragmentation risks splitting anti-NDA votes. Kishor's binary outlook reflects psephological realism: in Bihar's volatile politics, newcomers either fade or forge empires, and his gamble could redefine the state's power equation.

If Jan Suraaj surges past 150—a threshold Kishor deems victory—it could install him as kingmaker or even CM, upending Bihar's coalition curse where no single party has won outright since 1990. Conversely, sub-10 seats would validate critics labelling it a "joke" venture, forcing a rethink for 2030. As Bihar, with 7.4 crore voters and 80% turnout projected, heads to polls amid Diwali fervour, Kishor's words echo the electorate's dilemma: incremental tweaks under Nitish-Tejashwi or a radical reset? The answer, per the maestro, lies in that final leap—toward dawn or dusk for Jan Suraaj's tryst with destiny.

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