Actor-turned-politician Vijay’s second major conference for his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) in Madurai has set off heated discussions about his potential to reshape Tamil Nadu’s 2026 Assembly elections. Drawing massive crowds, particularly young and first-time voters, the event showcased TVK’s growing appeal, fueled by Vijay’s star power and his 85,000-strong fan club network, now transformed into a political cadre. Yet, political analysts remain split on whether the 50-year-old superstar can convert his popularity into electoral success in a state dominated by Dravidian giants DMK and AIADMK.

Vijay, positioning TVK as a direct challenger to the ruling DMK, declared the 2026 polls a head-to-head battle, evoking the transformative 1967 and 1977 elections when CN Annadurai’s DMK and MGR’s AIADMK toppled entrenched powers. He emphasized clean governance, secularism, and social justice, aligning with icons like Periyar, Ambedkar, and Kamaraj, while labeling the BJP as an “ideological enemy” and DMK as a “political adversary” for alleged corruption and dynastic politics. Despite his call for power-sharing with potential allies, no major party, including AIADMK, has committed, though speculation persists about a possible alliance if AIADMK severs ties with the BJP.

Analysts predict Vijay could disrupt the vote share, potentially drawing anti-DMK votes and eroding AIADMK’s base, inadvertently aiding the ruling DMK. Others suggest TVK might siphon support from Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), which holds sway among youth, or attract minority votes due to Vijay’s Christian background, though DMK’s entrenched minority support may limit this shift. Estimates place TVK’s potential vote share at 7-9%, significant but unlikely to secure power outright, given the historical failure of film stars like Vijayakanth and Kamal Haasan to clinch the Chief Minister’s seat.

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TVK’s organizational push is robust, with plans for 70,000 booth agents and a goal of enrolling two crore members via the MYTVK app. Vijay’s focus on local issues, like fishermen’s struggles, and his likely candidacy in Ramanathapuram or Dharmapuri, signals a strategic campaign. However, skeptics warn that Tamil Nadu’s cinema-driven political era has waned, and Vijay’s untested political credentials face a formidable DMK led by Chief Minister MK Stalin. Posts on X reflect polarized sentiments, with some hailing Vijay as a “game-changer” and others dismissing TVK’s prospects as “single-digit wins.”

As Vijay intensifies his campaign, his ability to bridge his cinematic charisma with political substance will determine whether TVK emerges as a disruptor or a fleeting force in 2026.

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