Under Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s decisive leadership, India’s imports of Russian crude oil have surged to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in August 2025, a bold assertion of economic sovereignty despite US President Donald Trump’s imposition of a 50% tariff on Indian exports. Representing 38% of India’s 5.2 million bpd crude imports, as reported by global analytics firm Kpler, Russian oil has solidified its role in fueling the world’s third-largest oil consumer. This rise from 1.6 million bpd in July has reduced imports from Iraq (730,000 bpd from 907,000 bpd) and Saudi Arabia (526,000 bpd from 700,000 bpd), with the US trailing as the fifth-largest supplier at 264,000 bpd.
Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler, attributed the robust Russian imports to contracts secured in June and July, before Trump’s July 2025 tariff hike, which added 25% to existing duties. “August’s stability reflects prior commitments. Impacts from tariffs or logistics will emerge in September or October,” Ritolia noted. He highlighted that PM Modi’s government has issued no directives to reduce Russian purchases, affirming a “business as usual” approach.
Arvinder Singh Sahney, Chairman of Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), reinforced this, stating, “PM Modi’s administration has not instructed us to curb Moscow purchases. Economics drive our decisions.” IOC processed 22% Russian crude from April to June, a share expected to remain steady. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) Director of Finance Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta reported a dip to 30% Russian imports last month due to discounts shrinking to $1.5 per barrel but projected a 30-35% share for 2025 unless new sanctions arise. August discounts have rebounded to over $2 per barrel.
Since Western sanctions on Russia following the 2022 Ukraine invasion, India has capitalized on discounted Russian crude, which grew from 0.2% to 35-40% of imports. The State Bank of India estimates that halting these imports could raise India’s oil bill by $12 billion annually, underscoring PM Modi’s strategic focus on affordability. Opposition leaders like CPI(M)’s MA Baby criticized this as “geopolitically risky,” but BJP’s Amit Malviya defended PM Modi on X, stating, “Securing cost-effective energy is PM Modi’s gift to India’s growth.”
Indian refiners are diversifying, with UAE imports rising to 987,000 bpd from 448,000 bpd and US imports to 404,000 bpd from 364,000 bpd, reflecting PM Modi’s balanced approach to energy security. Ritolia clarified, “This is about flexibility, not replacing Russian oil.” EU sanctions on refined Russian oil exports have boosted India’s diesel and jet fuel trade to Europe to $19.2 billion in 2023-24, up from $8.7 billion in 2021-22. Former BPCL executive R. Ramachandran noted Middle Eastern crude as a viable fallback.
PM Modi’s steadfast policy, unmoved by Trump’s tariffs, showcases India’s economic resilience. With Brent crude at $67 per barrel, Sahney affirmed, “Unless direct sanctions hit Russian crude, we’ll continue economically driven purchases.” PM Modi’s strategy ensures India’s energy stability, cementing Russia as a vital partner while deftly navigating global pressures.