After a month of intense conflict, Iran appears to have gained a critical strategic advantage by tightening its grip over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital oil transit routes. Despite sustained military strikes by the United States and Israel targeting key Iranian assets and leadership, Tehran has leveraged control over the chokepoint to exert pressure on global energy flows.
Shipping activity through the strait has dropped dramatically, with only about six vessels passing daily in March compared to roughly 135 under normal conditions. Data indicates that nearly 80% of oil tankers exiting the route are either Iranian or linked to countries maintaining friendly ties with Tehran. This sharp decline highlights the effectiveness of Iran’s strategy in restricting access while maintaining its own export channels.
Most vessels now navigate the strait along routes approved by Iran, staying close to its coastline rather than the Omani side. Many ships reportedly engage in prior communication to secure safe passage, reflecting Tehran’s increasing operational control. Some countries, including Malaysia and Thailand, have even negotiated bilateral arrangements to release tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf.
Also Read: US Prepares 10,000 Troops and Secret Plans as Trump Weighs Ground Operation Against Iran
Iran has further formalised its dominance by introducing a new law imposing transit tolls and banning American and Israeli vessels from entering the gulf. While international maritime law under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea mandates free passage through such waterways, neither Iran nor the US has ratified the agreement, complicating enforcement. Control over Hormuz has also emerged as a key condition in Tehran’s demands for any potential ceasefire.
The conflict has not been without escalation. Multiple vessels have been targeted by projectiles in recent weeks, including a major crude tanker off Dubai, intensifying fears among shipowners and insurers. These attacks, combined with electronic interference affecting vessel tracking systems, have created an atmosphere of uncertainty and risk in the region.
Despite restricting global traffic, Iran’s own oil exports have continued largely uninterrupted, with shipments primarily heading to China. Estimates suggest exports have even increased compared to last year, generating significant revenue for Tehran. In contrast, other major oil exporters such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia have seen sharp declines, with some forced to cut production due to storage constraints.
The ripple effects are being felt across global markets. Oil prices have surged significantly, and major importing nations like India, Turkey, and Pakistan have been compelled to engage diplomatically with Tehran to secure energy supplies. Even Washington has taken limited steps to ease sanctions pressure in an effort to stabilise markets.
Meanwhile, the shipping and insurance industries are grappling with unprecedented disruption. War-risk premiums have surged, and large parts of the Middle East have been classified as high-risk zones. Alternative routes through the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea are being explored, but these come with higher costs and logistical challenges.
Analysts warn that even if hostilities subside, the situation may not return to normal quickly. Iran’s assertive control over the Strait of Hormuz has reshaped global energy dynamics, demonstrating how a regional conflict can rapidly evolve into a crisis with far-reaching economic and geopolitical consequences.
Also Read: Iran War's Hidden Cost: Fertilizer Shortage Threatens Crops, Food Prices And Farmer Livelihoods Globally