The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of a potential El Niño event later this year, which could weaken the Indian southwest monsoon and impact rainfall patterns across the subcontinent. According to the latest update, a recent weak La Niña event is expected to fade, giving way to either El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or El Niño-neutral conditions by the middle of the year.

El Niño, characterised by warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has historically been associated with deficient monsoon rains in India. The most recent strong El Niño, in 2023–24, was one of the five strongest on record, leading to below-average rainfall, affecting crop production and straining food stocks in the country. The WMO notes that similar conditions this year could pose challenges for agriculture, water management, and related sectors.

The agency highlighted that the evolving ENSO conditions, combined with shifts in tropical atmospheric circulation, may influence regional climate patterns beyond India, including parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Such developments require early monitoring and preparedness, particularly for farming communities and state authorities responsible for disaster management and irrigation planning.

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Meteorologists have urged caution and proactive planning, emphasising that El Niño’s impacts vary in intensity and duration. While forecasts provide an early indication of potential trends, continuous monitoring of sea surface temperatures and monsoon onset patterns will be crucial for assessing the likely effects on rainfall distribution, agriculture, and water resources across the Indian subcontinent.

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