India is closely monitoring the ongoing unrest in Iran, where economic hardship and political fatigue have fueled mass protests. New Delhi has historically relied on Tehran as a strategic partner, particularly as a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia, given Pakistan’s blockage of overland routes. Any weakening of the Iranian state could significantly limit India’s maneuvering space in the region.

At the heart of India’s Iran strategy lies the Chabahar Port, designed to provide a direct corridor to Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan. Experts warn that political instability in Tehran could jeopardize connectivity projects, security guarantees, and long-term strategic planning. Rajan Kumar, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, said, “In a post-Khamenei power struggle, Chabahar risks becoming a hostage to instability rather than a strategic asset.”

Iran’s Shia leadership has historically acted as a counterbalance to Pakistan in the region. Tehran’s anti-extremist stance and cooperation with India in Afghanistan during the 1990s and early 2000s limited Pakistan’s influence. A weakened Iran could indirectly benefit Islamabad by removing a key regional check on its ambitions.

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Trade and investment also stand to be affected. India is Iran’s eighth-largest trading partner, with annual trade around $1.3–$1.7 billion and investments exceeding $1 billion in Chabahar-related projects. Political upheaval could endanger these investments, disrupting both India’s economic interests and its regional connectivity plans.

China, meanwhile, has strengthened its footprint in Iran through a 25-year strategic pact and extensive trade, including oil and infrastructure investments. Analysts suggest that any prolonged instability in Iran could push a new regime closer to Beijing, further increasing China’s influence at India’s expense and undermining Delhi’s strategic counterbalance.

Former diplomat Nirupama Menon Rao emphasized a cautious Indian approach, focusing on protecting citizens and regional interests while closely monitoring multiple scenarios. She noted that chaos in Iran could quickly affect energy markets, shipping routes, and regional security, making strategic prudence, measured engagement, and contingency planning essential for India.

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