The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a prominent India-based think tank, stated that the dramatic political and military developments in Venezuela, including the U.S. capture of President Nicolás Maduro, are unlikely to create any significant disruption to India's economy or energy security due to the sharply diminished bilateral trade and oil ties over recent years.
GTRI highlighted that while India was once a substantial purchaser of Venezuelan crude oil during the 2000s and 2010s, with companies like ONGC Videsh holding upstream investments in the resource-rich Orinoco belt, commercial relations have drastically weakened since 2019 primarily because of stringent U.S. sanctions that compelled Indian refiners to halt imports to evade potential secondary penalties.
Current trade figures underscore this minimal exposure, with India's imports from Venezuela in 2024-25 amounting to only USD 364.5 million, including just USD 255.3 million in crude oil—a steep 81.3 percent decline from the previous fiscal year's USD 1.4 billion—while exports to Venezuela remained modest at USD 95.3 million, dominated by pharmaceuticals worth USD 41.4 million.
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Given the low overall trade volumes, ongoing sanctions-related constraints, and considerable geographical distance between the two nations, GTRI concluded that the unfolding crisis will not meaningfully affect India's macroeconomic stability, energy supply chains, or broader strategic interests in the immediate or medium term.
Looking ahead, the think tank warned of intensifying global competition and potential conflicts over raw materials and energy resources in the evolving geopolitical landscape, advising India to safeguard its strategic autonomy, steer clear of commitments that could compromise long-term sovereignty, and proactively secure access to critical commodities without succumbing to external pressures, especially as the U.S. appears motivated by gaining control over Venezuela's vast oil reserves—the world's largest at approximately 18 percent of global proven deposits.
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