Former US President Donald Trump is pushing for a new nuclear agreement with Iran, but analysts say the framework being discussed bears similarities to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiated under former President Barack Obama. Trump had long criticized the earlier agreement as the “worst deal ever” and withdrew the United States from it during his first term in 2018.

The proposed memorandum of understanding reportedly includes restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities and commitments aimed at preventing Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. Observers note that despite Trump’s efforts to present the new arrangement as tougher, several elements resemble the structure of the Obama-era accord that imposed limits on uranium enrichment and stockpiles in exchange for sanctions relief.

According to experts, Trump faces a political challenge in distinguishing any future agreement from the deal he previously opposed. Andrew Moran, a professor at London Metropolitan University, said Trump would be wary of comparisons because dismantling the JCPOA was a major policy objective of his administration. Moran argued that if the original agreement had remained in place, current tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program may have been less severe.

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The 2015 agreement restricted Iran’s uranium enrichment to 3.67 percent and capped its stockpile at 300 kilograms. Since the US withdrawal, Iran has significantly expanded its nuclear activities and is now reported to possess hundreds of kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, much closer to weapons-grade levels. The new proposal reportedly seeks a longer-term arrangement, including a 20-year restriction on uranium enrichment and assurances that Iran will not pursue nuclear weapons.

Trump is also facing pressure from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and hardline Republicans, who want stricter conditions and oppose easing sanctions without major concessions from Tehran. The draft proposal is said to include provisions related to a ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed nuclear negotiations. Analysts say that while the details differ, the broader framework still reflects many principles that underpinned the 2015 accord, setting up a debate over whether Trump’s deal would represent a major departure or a revised version of Obama’s agreement.

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