The United States appears to have lost momentum in its conflict with Iran, as President Donald Trump faces growing domestic and international pressure over the ongoing war, which began on February 28, 2026. Once confident of a swift victory, Trump is now grappling with a multi-front crisis that has cost American taxpayers an estimated US$900 million per day and contributed to a global energy crunch.

Iran has successfully drawn the U.S. into what analysts describe as an “escalation trap,” a strategy in which a state restructures the battlefield to make de-escalation costly or politically damaging for its opponent. Despite early U.S. strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and national security chief Ali Larijani, Tehran maintained its command structure and continued to operate efficiently, a tactic referred to as the “mosaic doctrine.”

The second element of Iran’s strategy relies on drone-led asymmetric warfare. Using mass-produced Shahed drones, Iran has targeted U.S. and allied military bases, as well as civilian and energy infrastructure in the Gulf. The cost disparity between cheap drones and expensive U.S. missile interceptors has forced Washington into a financially unsustainable defensive posture, highlighting the economic dimension of Iran’s tactics.

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The third, and most impactful, element involves the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The vital waterway handles a fifth of the world’s seaborne crude oil supply, and Iran’s ability to disrupt traffic has driven up global fuel prices, with U.S. gasoline exceeding US$4 per gallon and European prices rising 15–17 per cent. This maneuver has shifted pressure from conventional military engagements to global economics, weakening U.S. leverage.

Experts note that Iran does not aim to defeat U.S. forces outright. Instead, it seeks to maintain strategic ambiguity and economic pressure, forcing Washington to react rather than control the narrative. Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf, have issued increasingly assertive statements, underscoring Tehran’s ability to dictate terms without engaging in full-scale warfare.

President Trump now faces intensifying domestic scrutiny, with approval ratings at historic lows and mid-term elections only seven months away. Analysts argue that Iran’s combination of the mosaic doctrine, asymmetric attacks, and control over critical energy chokepoints has made the war politically and economically costly for the U.S., demonstrating that Tehran outmaneuvered Washington rather than outgunned it.

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