Satellite images reveal a surge in construction activity at Israel’s Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Centre near Dimona, a facility long suspected to be the heart of the country’s clandestine nuclear weapons program. Experts analyzing the images suggest the new structure could be a heavy water reactor or a facility for assembling nuclear arms, reigniting concerns about Israel’s status as the Middle East’s only nuclear-armed state.

The intensified work, first reported by the Associated Press in 2021, has escalated significantly, with recent images from July 5 showing thick concrete walls and multi-level underground construction at a site 150 meters long and 60 meters wide. Cranes dominate the skyline, but no containment dome—typical for reactors—is visible, leaving experts divided on the structure’s purpose. Three of seven analysts believe it’s likely a new heavy water reactor to produce plutonium or tritium, critical for nuclear weapons. The others suggest it could be a facility for assembling warheads, though the early stage of construction makes certainty elusive.

“It’s probably a reactor, given its size and location,” said Jeffrey Lewis of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. “Dimona’s history points to nuclear activity.” Edwin Lyman of the Union of Concerned Scientists noted the absence of a containment dome but suggested a box-shaped reactor design. Israel’s secrecy, with no international inspections allowed, fuels speculation, as the country neither confirms nor denies its nuclear arsenal, estimated at around 90 warheads by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

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The construction follows Israel and U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites in June, targeting facilities like the Arak heavy water reactor over fears of weaponization. This has drawn sharp criticism, with some calling Israel’s actions hypocritical given Dimona’s unchecked expansion. The facility’s aging reactor, operational since the 1960s, may need replacement or retrofitting, potentially to maintain or boost production of plutonium or tritium, which decays 5% annually and enhances warhead explosive power.

Israel’s nuclear ambiguity, a policy since the 1950s, has deterred regional adversaries but evaded global scrutiny. As one of four nations outside the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Israel faces no obligation to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspections at Dimona, unlike its Soreq research reactor. The lack of transparency, underscored by a 1980s whistleblower’s revelations of warhead production, keeps the world guessing about Israel’s intentions.

“If this is a new reactor, it’s about sustaining their ability to produce nuclear weapon materials,” said Daryl G. Kimball of the Arms Control Association. The construction could also aim to replenish decaying tritium stocks, ensuring the arsenal’s potency. With no official comment from Israel or its ally, the White House, the international community is left to speculate on the implications of this secretive project in the volatile Middle East.

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