NATO issued a robust warning to Russia on Tuesday, vowing to deploy all necessary military and non-military measures to counter further breaches of its airspace, following recent incidents involving Russian aircraft. The alert came after Estonia reported that three Russian fighter jets violated its airspace for 12 minutes on Friday, September 19, an accusation Moscow denied. This followed the downing of Russian drones over Poland on September 10, marking NATO’s first direct confrontation with Russia since the Ukraine conflict began in 2022, intensifying concerns about the alliance’s readiness against escalating Russian provocations.

In a statement, the 32-member alliance affirmed its resolve to deter threats “from all directions” under international law, emphasising its commitment to Article 5, which treats an attack on one ally as an attack on all. NATO declared it would respond “in the manner, timing, and domain of our choosing,” though specifics on potential actions were not disclosed. The warning followed Estonia’s invocation of Article 4, prompting formal consultations when a member’s territorial integrity or security is threatened, reflecting heightened regional anxieties along NATO’s eastern flank.

The Poland incident, involving drones straying into NATO territory, rattled European leaders, exposing vulnerabilities in airspace defence amid Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine. Estonia’s report of unauthorised jets underscored the Baltic states’ exposure, given their proximity to Russia and history of Soviet occupation. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced on Monday that Poland would shoot down intruding objects without hesitation, though it remains unclear if other allies fully support this stance, highlighting potential divisions in NATO’s response strategy.

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These incidents occur against the backdrop of increased Russian military activity near NATO borders, including frequent airspace probes since 2022. The alliance has bolstered defences in Eastern Europe, deploying additional troops and air patrols in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. As tensions rise, NATO’s unified stance aims to deter further provocations, with analysts warning that unchecked violations risk broader escalation, testing the alliance’s cohesion and resolve in a volatile geopolitical climate.

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