The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a surprising update: La Niña, the climate phenomenon known for cooling Pacific Ocean waters, could make a comeback as early as September 2025. However, despite its cooling influence, global temperatures are expected to stay above average, raising concerns about the interplay between natural climate cycles and human-driven climate change.
La Niña and its counterpart, El Niño, are two sides of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a powerful climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean that influences weather worldwide. El Niño warms ocean waters near Peru, often weakening India’s monsoon and causing milder, warmer winters. In contrast, La Niña cools those waters, typically strengthening India’s monsoon and bringing colder, more severe winters to many regions. According to the WMO, neutral ENSO conditions—neither El Niño nor La Niña—have prevailed since March 2025, with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific hovering near average. But signs point to a shift, with La Niña potentially emerging by September.
The WMO’s Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction estimate a 55% chance of La Niña conditions developing between September and November 2025, with a 45% chance of neutral conditions persisting. By October to December, the odds of La Niña increase to about 60%, while the likelihood of El Niño remains negligible. This forecast suggests significant changes in global weather patterns in the coming months.
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“Seasonal forecasts like these are critical for preparing for climate impacts,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “Understanding La Niña and El Niño helps sectors like agriculture, energy, health, and transport save millions of dollars and countless lives by guiding preparedness efforts.” Saulo emphasized that while ENSO is a major driver of global climate, other factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole, also shape weather patterns.
Despite La Niña’s cooling effect, the WMO warns that human-induced climate change continues to push global temperatures higher, intensifying extreme weather and disrupting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns. For September to November 2025, above-normal temperatures are projected across much of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Rainfall patterns, meanwhile, are expected to align with those typical of a moderate La Niña, potentially bringing wetter conditions to parts of India and colder winters to other regions.
The WMO’s update underscores the complexity of Earth’s climate system, where natural cycles like La Niña interact with the broader warming trend driven by human activity. As the world braces for La Niña’s return, the persistence of above-average temperatures highlights the growing challenge of adapting to a rapidly changing climate. Governments, industries, and communities are urged to use these forecasts to prepare for potential disruptions in the months ahead.
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