India and Canada have formally resumed negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with an ambitious target of doubling bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030, a decision sealed during a crucial sideline meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the G20 Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, signalling the clearest sign yet of thawing relations after years of diplomatic estrangement.

The breakthrough follows months of quiet confidence-building measures and reflects a shared recognition that economic interdependence can serve as a powerful stabilising force; Carney has publicly accepted Modi’s invitation for an official bilateral visit to India in the first quarter of 2026, a trip expected to lock in political momentum behind the trade pact and open new avenues for cooperation in technology, critical minerals, and clean energy.

Current two-way trade in goods and services stands at approximately C$31 billion (around $22 billion) annually according to Canadian statistics, a figure both governments now deem insufficient given India’s status as the world’s fifth-largest and fastest-growing major economy and Canada’s need to diversify export markets away from overwhelming dependence on the United States amid uncertain North American trade dynamics.

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The earlier collapse of talks in September 2023 had been triggered by a severe diplomatic crisis sparked by then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s public allegation of potential Indian government involvement in the killing of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia, prompting mutual expulsion of diplomats and a near-total freeze in high-level contact; the subsequent exchange of new ambassadors this summer and sustained national security dialogues under Prime Minister Carney’s administration since March have steadily rebuilt the foundation for pragmatic re-engagement.

Successful conclusion of the revived CEPA would dismantle lingering tariff and non-tariff barriers, grant Canadian firms enhanced access to India’s vast market in agriculture, services, and digital economy, while providing Indian exporters preferential entry into Canada across multiple sectors, ultimately strengthening supply-chain resilience, creating thousands of jobs on both sides, and positioning the partnership as a strategic counterweight in an increasingly volatile global trade landscape.

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