India is likely to experience a warmer and drier October after the southwest monsoon ended with a 13 per cent rainfall deficit, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The country received 759.4 mm of rain during the June-September monsoon season, against the normal 868.6 mm. However, the weather pattern could change later in the post-monsoon season, with some regions expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall between October and December.

The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall across much of the country in October, with rainfall expected to remain below 85 per cent of the long-period average. Above-normal maximum temperatures are also likely over most parts of India. However, rain is not expected to disappear completely, with several parts of eastern, southern and northeastern India likely to receive rainfall during the first week of October. Isolated heavy showers are also possible in some areas, including Uttarakhand and parts of central, eastern and southern India.

The rainfall deficit during the southwest monsoon has been linked by the IMD to prevailing El Nino conditions over the tropical Pacific, which emerged in June and strengthened subsequently. The weather department said strong El Nino conditions are currently prevailing and could continue until March 2027. The monsoon's overall performance has left several regions with rainfall shortages, increasing the importance of rainfall during the post-monsoon period.

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The IMD's October-December outlook indicates that some parts of northwest India could receive normal to above-normal rainfall. These areas include Punjab, parts of Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir. Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh recorded deficient rainfall during the southwest monsoon, meaning additional rainfall during the post-monsoon season could provide some relief to these regions.

In southern India, the northeast monsoon is expected to become increasingly important from the second half of October, with its onset over the region forecast around October 15-21. The IMD expects normal rainfall during the October-December period in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka. South Peninsular India generally receives about 30 per cent of its annual rainfall from the northeast monsoon, while Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal receive around 48 per cent during this season.

The IMD's current outlook suggests that October could remain warmer than normal across much of India, while the country's rainfall pattern gradually shifts from the withdrawing southwest monsoon to the northeast monsoon in the south. The forecast does not specify a precise nationwide date for the arrival of winter. Weather conditions are therefore expected to transition gradually, with rainfall prospects differing considerably between northern, central and southern parts of the country.

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