India’s specialty fertiliser industry is on high alert as China prepares to reimpose stringent export restrictions starting October, a move expected to drive up prices and disrupt supplies for Indian farmers, according to Rajiv Chakraborty, President of the Soluble Fertilizer Industry Association (SFIA). The temporary resumption of Chinese specialty fertiliser exports in September has offered a brief reprieve, but the looming curbs, involving intensified inspections and consignment delays, are set to create significant challenges for India’s agricultural sector.

“China’s export window will close for the global market, not just India, from October,” Chakraborty told PTI. “They don’t halt supplies entirely but restrict them through bureaucratic delays, which will squeeze availability.” India, heavily reliant on China for 80% of its specialty fertiliser imports and an additional 20% indirectly through Chinese sources, faces a critical supply chain bottleneck. With only 5% of NPK formulations produced domestically, the country depends on China for 95% of its specialty fertiliser needs, a dependency that has grown since European suppliers began sourcing from China in 2005.

The recent halt in Chinese exports already triggered a 40% price surge, though the timing mitigated immediate impacts as the peak season for specialty fertilisers—used extensively in drip irrigation for cash crops like grapes and bananas—begins in September. To counter the impending restrictions, Indian companies, including SFIA members, are racing to secure their seasonal requirements within the current one-month window. “Our global sourcing players are working overtime to stockpile supplies before the curbs take effect,” Chakraborty said.

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While indigenous fertiliser production is expected to ramp up by mid-season, potentially easing some supply constraints, price hikes remain inevitable. “Farmers will bear the brunt of these increases, especially for horticultural and cash crop cultivation,” Chakraborty warned. The price surge could strain farmers’ budgets, particularly during the critical planting season when demand for soluble and specialty fertilisers peaks.

The SFIA is urging the government to explore alternative suppliers and bolster domestic production to reduce reliance on Chinese imports. However, with China’s restrictions set to disrupt global fertiliser markets, India faces a race against time to secure supplies and mitigate the impact on its agricultural heartland. As the October deadline looms, the industry braces for a challenging season, with farmers likely to face higher costs and potential shortages that could ripple across the agricultural economy.

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