New research highlights that asteroid 2024 YR4, a roughly 60-metre-wide near-Earth object, currently carries a small but non-zero chance of striking the Moon in December 2032. If that unlikely scenario plays out, the collision could produce a dramatic flash of light visible from Earth and generate other observable phenomena.

According to simulations by astronomers using thousands of orbital trajectories, 2024 YR4 retains an approximate 4.3 % probability of lunar impact on 22 December 2032. Earlier concerns that the asteroid might hit Earth in the same timeframe have been confidently ruled out by telescopic observations and refined orbital calculations.

If the asteroid were to strike, the energy released would be substantial — comparable to several million tonnes of TNT. Models predict the impact could briefly produce a bright optical flash as luminous as Venus, lasting for several minutes and potentially visible across parts of East Asia, Oceania, Hawaii and western North America, particularly if the impact occurs on the Moon’s night side.

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Beyond the initial flash, the collision is expected to eject large volumes of lunar material into space. Some simulations suggest hundreds of millions of kilograms of debris could be thrown outward, with a fraction possibly reaching Earth and manifesting as meteor showers or multiple fainter flashes in the days or weeks following impact.

Scientists emphasize that while these outcomes offer a unique scientific opportunity to observe impact dynamics in real time, the majority probability still favours the asteroid missing the Moon entirely. Additional observations, including planned tracking by instruments such as the James Webb Space Telescope in key windows this year, are expected to refine the impact probability further.

Researchers stress the event’s hypothetical nature, noting that definitive impact likelihood won’t be resolved until the asteroid is back within observational range in 2028. In the meantime, space agencies and astronomers continue to monitor 2024 YR4’s orbit and study its potential effects on lunar science and celestial mechanics.

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