India may see the return of Iranian crude oil this week as a tanker carrying an estimated 600,000 barrels is scheduled to dock at a Gujarat port on April 4, signaling a temporary revival of India-Iran oil trade amid ongoing disruptions in West Asia. The Eswatini-flagged vessel Ping Shun is en route from Iran’s Kharg Island, a key oil storage hub reportedly under threat of a US ground invasion, to Vadinar, home to a major refinery operated by Russia-backed Naraya Energy. Vadinar also serves as a distribution hub for crude to inland refineries, including Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd.’s facility in Bina, Madhya Pradesh.

The shipment would mark the first official Iranian crude imports to India since May 2019, when US and other Western sanctions halted trade. India’s possible purchase comes after Washington granted a 30-day waiver, expiring April 19, allowing pre-loaded Iranian cargo to reach foreign buyers amid the global energy disruptions caused by its war on Iran. Analysts caution that the final port of call could still change, as vessel tracking data indicates some tankers adjust destinations mid-journey to avoid detection under sanctions.

“This shipment could provide critical relief for Indian refiners facing tightening inventories due to Gulf export disruptions,” said Sumit Ritolia, analyst at market intelligence firm Kpler. If confirmed, the move would also underscore the continuing strategic energy and economic linkages between Delhi and Tehran at a time when Iran faces limited global trade partners and urgent reconstruction needs. Payment mechanisms remain unclear, as Iran is excluded from the global SWIFT network. Pre-sanctions transactions were conducted in Indian rupees, with India exporting goods like food and medicines to Tehran in return.

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Historically, Iran was a major supplier of crude to India. Imports peaked at 16% of India’s crude needs in 2008, and after the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, India bought an estimated 500,000 barrels in March 2016, making Iran its third-largest supplier by 2017. Volumes reached a record 705,000 barrels per day in May 2018. Trade began declining after the US withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018, with the last official Iranian shipment arriving in April 2019.

The current waiver allows approximately 95 million barrels of Iranian crude already at sea to reach buyers, of which about 51 million barrels could go to India. The remaining volume is expected to be allocated to China and other Southeast Asian countries affected by the ongoing conflict. Observers note that while this revival may be short-lived, it provides immediate relief to India’s refining sector amid volatile global oil markets.

With geopolitical uncertainties persisting, the arrival of Ping Shun could mark a tentative reopening of the Indo-Iranian energy corridor, highlighting the interplay of strategic diplomacy, sanctions waivers, and energy security concerns shaping the region’s oil trade.

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