India’s southwest monsoon officially ended on Wednesday after the country recorded rainfall 13 per cent below normal during the June-September season, making 2026 the fourth-lowest rainfall year since 2001, according to the India Meteorological Department. The country received about 87 per cent of its normal monsoon rainfall, against a long-period average of 868.6 mm based on the 1971-2020 period. Rainfall was also unevenly distributed across different regions and periods of the season.

The deficient rainfall affected a significant portion of the country, with 282 districts, accounting for about 38 per cent of India’s total area, receiving deficient rainfall. The monsoon began withdrawing from northwest India in September before eventually retreating from the rest of the country. Despite the overall deficit, rainfall patterns varied considerably across the four-month season, with periods of heavy surplus followed by sharp declines.

The 2026 monsoon was marked by pronounced swings in weekly rainfall. The week ending July 8 recorded rainfall 45.4 per cent above normal, but the following week saw a 51.1 per cent deficit, according to the IMD. Rainfall briefly improved in late July and early August before remaining below normal through much of August and September. The week ending September 9 recorded a 36.3 per cent deficit, while the final week of the season reversed the trend with rainfall 49 per cent above normal.

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The weak season had been anticipated by the weather department several months earlier. In its first long-range forecast on April 13, the IMD projected rainfall at 92 per cent of the long-period average, with a model error of five per cent, and classified the season as likely to be below normal. By the end of May, the forecast was revised to 90 per cent of the long-period average. The IMD cited the increasing likelihood of El Nino conditions as one of the factors influencing its assessment.

The season eventually ended at around 87 per cent of the long-period average, about three percentage points below the May forecast and five percentage points below the April projection. The final figure remained within the uncertainty range of the earlier forecasts, although the distribution and timing of rainfall varied sharply. The uneven pattern meant that the national seasonal figure did not fully reflect the differences experienced across regions and individual periods.

El Nino is expected to remain an important climate signal during the post-monsoon and winter months. The IMD has indicated that the probability of El Nino conditions during October-December is close to 100 per cent, with the phenomenon potentially persisting until March 2027. At the same time, the department does not expect a positive Indian Ocean Dipole to develop, meaning there may be no major ocean-atmosphere signal to offset El Nino’s influence in the coming months.

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