Middle East crude oil exports, excluding Iran, have risen above their pre-conflict levels despite continued disruption and attacks involving vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, according to maritime tracking firm Kpler. The increase marks a significant development in regional oil flows since the conflict began, with weekly shipments rising above the pre-war average for several days. Kpler said crude oil exports from the region reached pre-war levels in September, with at least 16.5 million barrels leaving the Middle East excluding Iran. The data indicates that exporters and shipping companies have increasingly relied on alternative routes and infrastructure to maintain the movement of crude despite the risks surrounding the key waterway.

According to Kpler, the weekly average of shipments rose above the pre-conflict average of around 18 million barrels per day for several days, marking the first such increase since the US and Israel launched their offensive against Iran at the end of February. The recovery in export volumes comes despite continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, a major global oil transit route. The waterway has faced heightened risks since the conflict began, with concerns over shipping security and the potential disruption of crude supplies. The latest figures suggest that regional producers have nevertheless managed to sustain and increase exports by using a combination of alternative transportation routes and changes in tanker operations.

Kpler said around 40% of the oil currently being moved from the region bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. A significant share of the crude that continues to move through the strait is also transferred between tankers offshore, allowing shipments to continue despite the security risks. Much of the oil bypassing the waterway is being transported through pipelines operated by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. These routes have become increasingly important as exporters seek alternatives to the strategically important maritime passage. The ability of existing pipeline infrastructure to handle additional volumes has helped regional producers maintain crude shipments even as vessels face greater risks around Hormuz.

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Alternative maritime routes have also contributed to the continued movement of Middle Eastern crude. Kpler said flows through the Red Sea are increasingly being used to bypass the restrictions and risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz. The Red Sea route provides another pathway for some oil shipments, reducing reliance on the waterway that traditionally handles a substantial share of global petroleum supplies. Before the conflict, around one-fifth of the world's petroleum supplies crossed the Strait of Hormuz, making the waterway one of the most important chokepoints in global energy trade. Increased use of alternative routes therefore represents an important adjustment by oil exporters and shipping operators.

Iran continues to claim control over the Strait of Hormuz, while ships that move through the area without its authorisation face the risk of attack, according to the information cited in the report. Despite those risks, an increasing number of vessels are continuing to make it through the waterway, while alternative routes designed to avoid it are operating at high capacity. The combination of continued tanker traffic through Hormuz, offshore ship-to-ship transfers and greater use of pipelines and alternative maritime routes has helped prevent regional crude exports from falling below pre-war levels.

The recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports highlights the ability of producers and transport networks to adapt to severe geopolitical and logistical disruptions. Kpler's data shows that crude shipments excluding Iran have not only recovered from the initial impact of the conflict but have exceeded the pre-war levels for periods in recent weeks. At least 16.5 million barrels of crude left the region excluding Iran in September, while weekly flows also moved above the previous average of 18 million barrels per day for several days. The continued use of Saudi and UAE pipelines, Red Sea routes and tanker transfers indicates that exporters are relying on multiple channels to keep supplies moving while uncertainty persists around the Strait of Hormuz.

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