Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal assured on Saturday that ongoing negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) between India and the United States are proceeding in a cordial atmosphere, with firm safeguards for the interests of Indian farmers, fishermen, and micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Addressing reporters in New Delhi, Goyal emphasised, "No agreement can be made until we take care of the interests of India's farmers, fishermen, and MSME sector," underscoring New Delhi's non-negotiable stance amid pressures from Washington for concessions in sensitive agricultural sectors. This update follows a three-day round of talks in Washington that concluded on October 17, led by Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal, signalling incremental progress toward a pact aimed at doubling bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030.

The deliberations gain urgency against a backdrop of strained economic ties, exacerbated by the Trump administration's imposition of steep 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods earlier this year, including a 25 per cent additional duty on purchases of Russian crude oil. India has labelled these measures "unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable", contributing to a sharp 11.93 per cent decline in merchandise exports to the US, dropping to $5.46 billion in September from the previous year, even as imports rose 11.78 per cent to $3.98 billion.

Despite these headwinds, recent diplomatic overtures—such as phone conversations between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump—have injected optimism. A September 16 meeting in New Delhi between Indian officials and Assistant US Trade Representative Brendan Lynch further committed both sides to an early, mutually beneficial resolution, building on directives from February's bilateral summit to finalise the first tranche of the BTA by fall 2025.

The proposed agreement holds transformative potential for India's economy, as the US has been its largest trading partner for the fourth straight year, with 2024-25 bilateral trade reaching $131.84 billion—comprising $86.5 billion in exports that account for 18 per cent of India's total goods shipments, 6.22 per cent of imports, and 10.73 per cent of overall merchandise trade. Resolving key issues like tariff reductions and market access could reverse recent export slumps and bolster sectors vulnerable to global protectionism.

Officials noted that several sticking points have been addressed in prior rounds, fostering a positive tone during the latest Washington session. Goyal's team, now en route back from the US, is expected to debrief on resolved matters, including non-tariff barriers and intellectual property concerns, while prioritising domestic sensitivities to prevent backlash from agrarian lobbies—a critical factor in India's politically charged rural economy.

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As the deadline looms, these talks exemplify the delicate balance between economic ambition and protective diplomacy in an era of resurgent trade nationalism. With the BTA poised to enhance supply chain resilience and counterbalance China's dominance, success could yield jobs in export-orientated MSMEs and stabilise farmer incomes through equitable terms. However, failure risks deepening the trade deficit and fuelling domestic discontent. Goyal's remarks reflect a pragmatic optimism, aligning with Modi's "Neighbourhood First" ethos extended to strategic partners like the US. Stakeholders await the next round, hopeful that sustained dialogue will yield a deal safeguarding India's growth trajectory while mending transatlantic frictions, ultimately fostering a more integrated Indo-Pacific economic framework.

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