President Donald Trump reiterated his bold assertion on Monday that U.S. tariffs served as a pivotal diplomatic tool in de-escalating the volatile India-Pakistan conflict earlier this year, crediting his undisclosed communications with compelling the nuclear-armed neighbors to cease hostilities after a tense four-day exchange of drone and missile strikes. Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump framed tariffs not merely as an economic instrument but as a cornerstone of American global peacekeeping efforts.
"Tariffs are very important for the United States. We are a peacekeeper because of tariffs. Not only do we make hundreds of billions of dollars, but we're a peacekeeper because of tariffs," Trump stated, emphasizing their dual role in bolstering the U.S. economy and averting international crises. He contended that absent this "power of tariffs," at least four ongoing conflicts worldwide would persist, potentially claiming thousands of lives daily.
Delving into the India-Pakistan episode, Trump highlighted the gravity of the situation: "If you look at India and Pakistan, they were ready to go at it. Seven planes were shot down. They were ready to go at it. And they are nuclear powers." He alluded to a private intervention—"And I don't want to say exactly what I said, but what I said was very effective. They stopped. And that was based on tariffs. It was based on trade"—that purportedly leveraged trade pressures to broker peace.
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The conflict in question erupted on April 22, 2025, when militants from The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, ambushed tourists in the scenic Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir. The attack claimed 26 lives, predominantly Hindu men executed at close range, in a calculated provocation that targeted families enjoying a spring outing. India swiftly attributed the assault to Pakistan-supported terrorism, a charge Islamabad vehemently denied, labeling it a "false flag" operation and calling for an independent probe.
Tensions escalated rapidly along the Line of Control (LoC), with skirmishes commencing on April 24. India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, drastically reducing water flows from the Chenab River into Pakistan, prompting Islamabad to reciprocate by abrogating the 1972 Simla Agreement. The flashpoint arrived on May 7, when India initiated Operation Sindoor—a meticulously planned barrage of air-launched missiles and loitering munitions striking nine terrorist camps linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed in Pakistan's Punjab province and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. New Delhi reported neutralizing over 100 militants without collateral damage, underscoring the operation's precision.
Pakistan countered with Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos on May 8-9, deploying drone swarms and missiles against 15 Indian military sites from Srinagar to Bhuj. The aerial clashes were fierce, with India deploying its S-400 systems to intercept threats, while Pakistan claimed successes including the downing of seven Indian aircraft—a figure contested by New Delhi. The 96-hour "Four-Day War," as it came to be known, rattled global markets, evacuated diplomatic missions, and spiked oil prices by 15%, evoking fears of nuclear escalation given both nations' arsenals.
A ceasefire materialized on May 10, following direct bilateral communications via the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs). Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi affirmed in Parliament that the resolution stemmed from New Delhi's strategic autonomy, with no external mediation influencing the halt to Operation Sindoor. "No leader from any country requested us to cease operations; our actions were calibrated for justice and deterrence," Modi declared, crediting India's integrated defense grid for thwarting Pakistani advances.
Trump, however, has steadfastly claimed credit since his May 10 social media announcement of a "full and immediate" ceasefire after a "long night" of Washington-brokered talks. He has invoked the episode repeatedly, integrating it into a tally of seven conflicts resolved during his second term: India-Pakistan, Cambodia-Thailand, Kosovo-Serbia, Congo-Rwanda, Israel-Iran, Egypt-Ethiopia, and Armenia-Azerbaijan. "Of the seven wars I ended, at least half were because of my ability at trade and because of tariffs," Trump elaborated. "If I didn't have tariffs to throw around a little bit, you would have at least four wars raging right now, with thousands of people a day being killed."
Analysts remain divided on Trump's narrative. Supporters hail his unorthodox approach—blending economic leverage with diplomacy—as a pragmatic evolution in U.S. foreign policy, especially amid strained alliances. Critics, including experts from the Stimson Center, argue the ceasefire arose from mutual exhaustion and regional backchannels, such as Saudi mediation, rather than tariff threats. India's Ministry of External Affairs has consistently rebuffed third-party involvement, while Pakistan's denials of the strikes' veracity persist.
As Trump eyes legacy-building ahead of the 2026 midterms, his tariff-peace paradigm underscores a worldview where commerce intersects with conflict resolution. With bilateral trade volumes rebounding post-crisis—India's exports to the U.S. up 12% in Q3 2025—the episode illustrates how economic interdependence can temper geopolitical tempests, even if the authorship of peace remains hotly contested.
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