As the world eagerly awaits the announcement of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize today, Friday, October 10, 2025, at 11:44 AM IST, speculation is rife about whether US President Donald Trump could be in the running. The Norwegian Nobel Committee, based in Oslo, is set to reveal the winner, an honor known for its unpredictability and prestige, reflecting the values of 19th-century Swedish industrialist Alfred Nobel. This year’s decision has already stirred debate, especially with the recent ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, which Trump has claimed credit for influencing.
However, experts, including historian and Peace Prize expert Asle Sveen, are skeptical. Sveen, speaking to news agency AFP, asserts, “The Gaza deal has absolutely no significance for the choice of the 2025 laureate because the Nobel Committee has already made its decision,” adding with certainty, “Trump will not win the prize this year. I'm 100 percent certain.” The committee’s final meeting occurred on Monday, finalizing its choice days in advance, making the timing of the Gaza deal irrelevant.
The Nobel Peace Prize, which includes a diploma, a gold medal, and a $1.2 million cash award, concluded its 2025 season’s other categories—medicine, physics, chemistry, literature, and peace—last week, with the economics prize announcement slated for Monday. Last year’s winner, Nihon Hidankyo, an organization of Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombing survivors advocating against nuclear weapons, set a high bar for this year’s selection.
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With 338 individuals and organizations nominated, the list remains secret for 50 years, leaving room for speculation. Among the frontrunners are Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a volunteer network aiding civilians during war and famine, and Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, whose legacy continues to inspire. The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, which monitors elections, is also a strong contender.
The committee might also use the award to signal its stance on global issues, potentially inviting criticism from the United States. Possible laureates include UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), and international courts like the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC). Organizations defending press freedom, such as the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) and Reporters Without Borders (RSF), are also in the conversation.
Despite Trump’s self-promotion and involvement in international peace efforts, the consensus among Nobel process observers is that his chances remain slim. The announcement, to be made in Oslo, will soon clarify whether the committee opts for a safe choice or a bold statement, keeping the world on edge until the name is revealed.
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