The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar is on the verge of finalising its seat-sharing formula for the upcoming November 2025 assembly elections, with sources indicating a resolution within the next two to three days. Union Minister and BJP's Bihar election in-charge Dharmendra Pradhan, alongside state co-in-charge Vinod Tawde, met Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) president Chirag Paswan in Delhi on October 7, 2025, for crucial discussions. A second round of talks is slated for later today, focusing on Paswan's push for 40-45 seats—a demand the BJP is countering with an offer around 25. The agreement, expected to be announced in Patna, comes as the Election Commission prepares to notify poll dates, with voting likely on November 6 and 11 and results on November 14.

Paswan, leveraging his party's perfect 5/5 strike rate in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, has proposed allocating at least two assembly seats in each of the five parliamentary constituencies his Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) holds—Hajipur, Vaishali, Samastipur, Jamui, and Khagaria. He has also sought winnable seats for senior leaders, emphasising quality over quantity to sustain morale among his Dalit and EBC voter base. BJP leaders assured Paswan that these requests would be deliberated internally, amid broader negotiations involving Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United), which is eyeing 101-102 seats to the BJP's 100-101. Smaller allies like Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) are bargaining for 8-10 seats each, with recent social media buzz suggesting a potential LJP allocation of 26 seats plus a Rajya Sabha berth.

To pressure the BJP, Paswan has hinted at exploring ties with Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, a wildcard contender pledging to contest all 243 seats on an anti-corruption platform after Kishor's 5,000 km Bihar Badlav Yatra. Though an actual alliance remains improbable given Jan Suraaj's outsider status, the tactic underscores Paswan's leverage, especially after his 2020 solo run dented JD(U)'s prospects while boosting NDA's overall tally. Discussions also touched on emotional matters, including preparations for the death anniversary of Paswan's father, Ram Vilas Paswan—the party's founder and a towering Dalit leader—on October 8, highlighting the personal stakes in these high-wire talks.

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The seat-sharing impasse reflects Bihar's fractured politics, where caste arithmetic dominates: Yadavs (14%), EBCs (36%), and Dalits (16%) form key blocs. The NDA, banking on Nitish Kumar's re-election as chief minister, aims to consolidate its 2020 majority of 125 seats against the opposition Mahagathbandhan (RJD-Congress-Left), which is grappling with internal rifts over Tejashwi Yadav's leadership. Recent surveys peg the contest as tight, with NDA at 45-48% vote share, buoyed by welfare schemes like the caste census. As talks intensify, Paswan's concessions could solidify the alliance's unity, but any deadlock risks fragmenting the anti-RJD vote, potentially tilting the scales in this fiercely contested battleground state.

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