European allies within the NATO are reportedly preparing for the possibility that U.S. President Donald Trump could order further withdrawals of American troops from Europe, following his announcement of a planned reduction of 5,000 personnel from Germany. The anticipated shifts have raised concerns among diplomats about the future structure of U.S. military commitments on the continent.

According to officials familiar with internal discussions, NATO members believe additional drawdowns could extend beyond Germany, with Italy and Spain among the countries potentially affected. Some scenarios under consideration include the cancellation of a Biden-era plan to deploy long-range missile systems in Germany and the possible redistribution of U.S. forces based on bilateral relations with individual allies.

Trump has publicly criticised several NATO partners, including Germany and Spain, over what he perceives as insufficient defence cooperation and burden-sharing. He recently told media that the United States was still evaluating whether to reduce troop presence in Italy, while reiterating that some allies had not adequately supported U.S. and allied operations in recent geopolitical conflicts.

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The United States currently maintains around 85,000 troops across Europe, with deployments playing a key role in rapid response capabilities for regions including the Middle East, Africa and Eastern Europe. NATO officials emphasise that the American presence also serves as a critical deterrent against potential Russian aggression, particularly along the alliance’s eastern flank.

Senior U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have acknowledged growing debate over the future of American force posture in Europe. While some within the administration support shifting greater defence responsibility to European allies under a broader “NATO 3.0” strategy, others warn that Europe is still years away from independently matching U.S. military capabilities in key areas such as intelligence, logistics and air mobility.

Despite political uncertainty, analysts note that structural constraints, including congressional oversight and long-standing strategic dependencies, could limit the scale and speed of any major troop reductions. NATO diplomats also caution that abrupt changes could create security gaps and potentially embolden adversaries, particularly in Eastern Europe where deterrence remains a central concern.

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