The assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by US and Israeli forces may not automatically lead to the “regime change” sought by Washington and Tel Aviv, diplomatic experts have cautioned, warning of potentially severe repercussions for the global economy. Analysts describe the incident as a pivotal moment in Iran’s 46-year Shia-theocratic rule, with Tehran’s retaliatory measures already sparking tensions across the Middle East.

Speaking to IANS, former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Veena Sikri described the situation as “grave and economically destabilising.” She highlighted the closure of Dubai Airport and the virtual shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz as indicators of the disruption to global trade and energy markets. Sikri noted that the attack occurred amid ongoing diplomatic efforts, reportedly mediated by Oman in Geneva, which had shown signs of progress before the strike.

Former diplomat K.P. Fabian said the operation represents a major military success for the United States and Israel, but stressed that it does not necessarily translate into political transformation in Iran. “There’s a lot of confusion about that word expression — regime change,” he said, adding that the strike was likely executed based on detailed human and electronic intelligence targeting Khamenei’s residence, which also housed close family members.

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Commenting on Khamenei’s decades-long rule, former diplomat Mahesh Kumar Sachdev described the leader as combining pragmatic governance with ideological rigidity. “He balanced various strands, keeping the country and its Islamic revolution together while diversifying options through negotiations, proxies, and careful management of internal political and economic dynamics,” Sachdev said.

Experts caution that, despite the immediate military success, destabilisation could extend beyond Iran’s borders, affecting energy markets, regional security, and international trade. They stress that political succession in Iran remains uncertain and that external military intervention alone may not achieve the political objectives envisioned by the US and Israel.

The assassination underscores the fragility of Middle Eastern stability and signals a period of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Analysts emphasise close monitoring of Iran’s internal power structures and regional responses, noting that the aftermath could shape global energy supplies and diplomatic alignments for years to come.

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