Amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict that has effectively disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, questions have intensified over how long India's oil reserves can sustain the country if fresh crude supplies from the Middle East are choked. The strait, a critical chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil flows, has seen shipments halt due to heightened security risks, insurance spikes, and military actions, directly impacting India's heavy reliance on Gulf-origin crude.

India imports over 85% of its crude oil needs, with daily consumption around 5 million barrels per day. Recent data shows that approximately 50-55% of these imports—roughly 2.5-2.7 million barrels per day—transit through the Strait of Hormuz, primarily from suppliers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait. This dependence has grown in early 2026 as refiners shifted away from discounted Russian oil under external pressures, making the current disruption particularly acute for energy security and import costs.

According to Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri's February 2026 statement to Parliament, India's combined petroleum reserves—including government-held strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) in underground caverns at Mangaluru, Visakhapatnam, and Padur, along with commercial stocks at refineries, floating storage at ports, and petroleum products—total around 74 days of demand coverage. This figure aligns with International Energy Agency recommendations for 90 days of strategic holdings, though India's current buffer falls short of that ideal amid rapid economic growth and rising consumption.

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In a more immediate disruption scenario through the Strait of Hormuz, industry analysts from firms like Kpler estimate that India's accessible commercial crude stocks—approximately 100 million barrels, encompassing SPR volumes, refinery tanks, and in-transit cargoes—could cover roughly 40-45 days of requirements if Gulf supplies are significantly curtailed. This shorter timeframe reflects the focus on readily available crude inventories rather than the broader 74-day aggregate that includes refined products. Refined fuel stocks (such as petrol, diesel, and LPG) provide additional cushion, potentially extending practical coverage further, though LPG remains especially vulnerable given high import reliance from Gulf sources.

The government continues to monitor the situation closely, with contingency measures including potential ramp-up of Russian crude imports, diversification to West Africa or the US, and rationing protocols if needed. While no immediate physical shortages are anticipated in the short term, prolonged closure could drive global oil prices higher, inflate India's import bill, and pressure domestic fuel affordability. Officials emphasize that layered buffers offer short- to medium-term resilience, but sustained Hormuz disruptions would test the limits of these reserves and underscore the urgency for expanding strategic storage capacity.

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