China's newly unveiled 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), presented at the National People's Congress on March 5, 2026, outlines an ambitious blueprint for technological dominance that could indirectly challenge U.S. military superiority, including the production and performance of advanced fighter jets like the F-35, without direct confrontation. The 141-page document emphasizes self-reliance in critical technologies and materials, positioning Beijing to leverage its near-monopoly on rare-earth elements as a strategic tool amid escalating U.S.-China tensions.

A key aspect of China's approach involves tightening export controls on rare-earth elements, which Beijing has expanded in recent years to include licensing requirements, end-user compliance rules, and restrictions on technologies and related products. China dominates global supply, controlling about 70% of mining, 90-95% of processing, and over 90% of permanent magnet production—essential components in defense systems. These controls provide fine-grained leverage, as rare-earths are vital for high-performance magnets used in jet engines, missile guidance, radar, and other F-35 subsystems, where each aircraft requires hundreds of kilograms of these materials.

The plan frames this as part of a broader "national technological mobilisation," prioritizing emerging sectors to reshape economic and military power dynamics. Artificial intelligence is prominently featured, with calls to embed AI across the economy through an "AI+ action plan" mentioned over 50 times in the document. Humanoid robotics is designated a pillar industry, with production targets to double within five years, while investments will accelerate in quantum computing, space-Earth quantum communication networks, nuclear fusion research, and brain-computer interface technologies.

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Analysts note that while global attention focuses on immediate conflicts like U.S. military actions in the Middle East, China's strategy operates on a longer horizon. Investment commentator Shanaka Anslem Perera highlighted on X that the plan functions as "an arsenal" in a non-kinetic domain, where rare-earth dominance intersects with defense vulnerabilities. The U.S. military's reliance on these materials—exemplified by the F-35's extensive use of rare-earth magnets—creates potential chokepoints, especially as new U.S. procurement rules aim to phase out Chinese-sourced rare earths by 2027 but face delays in building alternative supply chains.

The document also commits to nurturing "industries of the future," including embodied AI, 6G communications, and biomanufacturing, while strengthening response mechanisms for supply chain security and enhancing competitive advantages in rare earths. This approach aligns with Beijing's military-civil fusion strategy, where civilian tech advancements support defense objectives, potentially amplifying leverage in global supply chains critical to Western militaries.

As the plan progresses through approval and implementation, it underscores Beijing's intent to achieve technological self-sufficiency amid U.S. export restrictions on semiconductors and other tech. While not explicitly targeting specific weapons systems, the combination of material controls and frontier tech investments could reshape strategic balances over the decade, prompting concerns in Washington about long-term implications for air superiority and defense production.

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