The Budgam Assembly bypoll in Jammu & Kashmir has evolved into a defining moment for the ruling National Conference (NC), which has never lost the seat since 1972. With counting underway, the party is battling strong anti-incumbency and internal dissatisfaction, raising concerns about whether it can retain its most prestigious constituency.

This bypoll, conducted on November 11, was necessitated after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah vacated the Budgam seat to retain Ganderbal. The contest is particularly sensitive for NC because the seat has long symbolized its political strength. Seventeen candidates entered the fray, with the most prominent being NC’s Aga Mahmood, PDP’s Aga Muntazir, and BJP’s Aga Mohsin—three contenders from influential Shia families.

The stakes rose further when powerful Shia leader and Srinagar MP Aga Ruhullah chose not to campaign for the NC candidate, reflecting unease with the Omar-led government. Public frustration about unfulfilled promises—job creation, free electricity units, subsidised LPG cylinders, and a fair reservation policy—has added to the anti-incumbency wave. This discontent has made the traditionally predictable Budgam contest unusually competitive.

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Budgam’s voting percentage stood at 50.01%, while Nagrota, the second seat that went to bypoll, recorded a higher turnout. In Nagrota, the political narrative is different but equally critical, where the BJP is attempting to retain its influence after the passing of its MLA Devender Singh Rana. His daughter Devyani Rana faces NC’s Shamim Begum and JKNPP leader Harsh Dev Singh in a triangular contest that will reveal whether the BJP’s Jammu support base remains intact.

For NC, a victory in Budgam would reaffirm its hold on Kashmir politics and bolster Omar Abdullah’s government. However, a loss would be unprecedented, signaling voter disappointment and pushing the party into strategic introspection. As the results unfold, both Budgam and Nagrota stand poised to reshape the political dynamics in Jammu & Kashmir.

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