State Bank of India (SBI) is expected to report a mixed performance for the first quarter of FY27, with strong loan growth likely to support net interest income (NII), while softer margins and higher credit costs may weigh on profitability. According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, the country's largest lender is expected to post a 13 per cent year-on-year increase in NII to Rs 46,214 crore. However, net profit is projected to decline marginally by 1 per cent to Rs 19,052 crore, reflecting continued pressure on earnings despite healthy business growth.
Analysts expect SBI's loan book to expand by 17-18 per cent year-on-year during the June quarter, although deposit growth is likely to remain comparatively slower. The bank's net interest margin (NIM), a key measure of lending profitability, is estimated at 2.77 per cent, indicating a sequential decline. While operating expenses are expected to remain under control, treasury gains could provide some support to operating profit and partially offset the impact of lower margins.
Asset quality will remain a key area of focus when the bank announces its results. Analysts expect the gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio to rise by 10 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 1.59 per cent, signalling a slight deterioration in asset quality. Investors will also closely monitor developments related to the transition towards the expected credit loss (ECL) framework, along with trends in credit costs, which are anticipated to increase due to seasonal factors.
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Among the major metrics expected for the June quarter, net interest income is forecast at Rs 46,214 crore, while net profit is estimated at Rs 19,052 crore. The NIM is expected to settle at 2.77 per cent, and the GNPA ratio is projected at 1.59 per cent. Market participants will also look for management commentary on deposit mobilisation, loan demand and the outlook for margins in the coming quarters.
SBI's upcoming earnings follow a weaker-than-expected performance in the March quarter, when standalone net profit declined to Rs 19,684 crore from Rs 21,028 crore in the previous quarter, while operating profit fell to Rs 27,704 crore from Rs 31,286 crore. The disappointing results had triggered a sharp decline in the stock. Ahead of the June quarter earnings announcement, SBI shares traded 2.64 per cent higher at Rs 1,082.80 on the NSE during afternoon trade, outperforming the broader Nifty index, which was up 0.12 per cent.
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