Why BJP Cannot Afford to Upset Nitish Kumar Even as He Heads to Rajya Sabha

The future political equation of the ruling alliance in Bihar appears closely tied to the role of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, with sources indicating that maintaining his support remains crucial for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Kumar, who recently filed his nomination for the Rajya Sabha, may not be easily replaced as Bihar’s chief minister, particularly because the state is governed through a coalition arrangement with his party, the Janata Dal (United).

Sources familiar with the political developments said the BJP must carefully manage its alliance with the JD(U), as the partnership relies not only on legislative numbers but also on Kumar’s significant voter base. Unlike states such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, where the BJP has replaced chief ministers without coalition constraints, the situation in Bihar requires balancing alliance dynamics and political sensitivities.

In the most recent assembly election, the BJP emerged with 89 seats while the JD(U) secured 85, reversing the dynamic seen in the 2020 polls when Kumar’s party had suffered a setback and relinquished the “big brother” role in the alliance. The improved performance of the JD(U) has strengthened its bargaining position, and sources said the BJP may have to take the party’s preferences into account while making key leadership decisions.

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Another significant factor is Kumar’s personal political influence. The veteran leader commands substantial support among the most backward classes and women voters across the state. His popularity among women in particular grew through initiatives such as the bicycle scheme for schoolgirls and his decision to impose a statewide prohibition on alcohol, policies that helped consolidate a loyal voter base over the years.

However, the reported plan to move Kumar to the Rajya Sabha has not been well received by some JD(U) grassroots workers. Party sources said many local workers are struggling to accept the possibility that Kumar, who has served as chief minister since 2005, could step aside from the top post and move to the Upper House of Parliament.

According to reports from Patna, the BJP is not expected to rush the transition. Instead, the party may take a cautious approach and delay any leadership change by a month or two. Political observers also point to the upcoming legislative council election in Bihar, where Kumar’s son, Nishant Kumar, is expected to contest, with speculation that the chief minister may prefer to witness that development before formally shifting to the Rajya Sabha.

Also Read: Nitish Kumar Likely to Move to Rajya Sabha, BJP to Appoint Next Bihar CM say Sources