2025 Bihar Polls: The Ultimate Test for Nitish Kumar's Good Governance

As Bihar gears up for its assembly elections, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Janata Dal (United) chief and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, is locked in a high-stakes battle against the INDIA bloc, comprising Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and allies. Kumar, Bihar’s longest-serving CM, has anchored the NDA’s dominance since 2005 through his “sushasan” (good governance) mantra, but faces a reinvigorated opposition and new players like Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj.

With 7.42 crore voters, including 14 lakh first-timers, set to shape the 243-seat assembly’s fate, a SWOT analysis unveils the NDA’s strengths, vulnerabilities, and the tightrope it walks in a state where caste and development collide.

Strengths: Governance Legacy and Robust Machinery

• Nitish Kumar’s nearly two-decade tenure, marked by welfare schemes like 125 units of free electricity for 1.2 crore households, Har Ghar Nal-Jal (95% rural tap water coverage), and a pledge for one crore jobs by 2030, has solidified his appeal, particularly among women (60.4% support per InkInsight polls) and Extremely Backward Classes (36% of Bihar’s population).
• The NDA’s coalition strength—JD(U), BJP, and smaller allies like HAM(S)—is bolstered by a disciplined cadre, with BJP’s RSS-affiliated wings like Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad mobilizing youth.
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent ₹13,000-crore infrastructure push, including highways and AIIMS Darbhanga, amplifies the “double engine” narrative, giving NDA a projected 41–45% vote share and 131–150 seats, per JVC surveys.
• Kumar’s personal credibility, despite health concerns, remains a linchpin, with 37% CM preference in recent polls.

Weaknesses and Threats: Fatigue and Fractures

• The NDA’s prolonged rule breeds anti-incumbency, with rural voters signaling fatigue over persistent issues like migration (12 lakh Biharis annually) and unemployment (7.2% per CMIE).
• Nitish’s alliance switches—five since 2015—dent his reliability, while JD(U)’s lack of second-tier leaders post-Sushil Modi’s passing leaves it vulnerable.
• The BJP’s upper-caste image (10–15% of voters per 2023 caste survey) limits its reach among OBCs and Dalits, who lean toward RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav (25% CM preference).
• The BJP’s Hindutva push risks alienating Bihar’s 17% Muslims, including Pasmandas, a group Nitish once courted.
• Internal rifts, fueled by turncoats like Chirag Paswan’s re-induction, and a perceived “high command” culture within BJP, mirror Congress-era elitism, potentially eroding cadre morale.
• Jan Suraaj’s 10–11% vote share projection adds a wildcard, splitting anti-NDA votes but complicating coalition math.

Also Read: Bihar’s 2025 Elections to Be Held in Two Phases, Results on November 14

Opportunities: Seizing the Future

• The BJP stands to gain from Nitish’s twilight years, potentially increasing its seat share (45 in 2020) to rival JD(U)’s projected 52–58 seats, grooming leaders like Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary for succession.
• The NDA can capitalize on Bihar’s youth bulge—14 lakh first-time voters—by emphasizing skill development and job schemes, countering Tejashwi’s caste census pitch.
• Modi’s national appeal could consolidate Hindu votes across castes, while urban growth (11% of Bihar’s population) aligns with NDA’s infrastructure narrative.

However, the coalition must navigate threats from a united INDIA bloc and AAP’s solo run, ensuring its welfare-driven image outshines opposition promises in a state hungry for change.

Also Read: Bihar’s 2025 Polls to See 7.4 Crore Voters, Including 14 Lakh First-Timers