Digital Census to Deliver India’s 2027 Population Figures, Likely Above 143 Crore

India is set to complete its next census by February 2027, with initial population estimates expected to be released by the end of March, providing crucial data for policymakers to plan welfare programs, allocate resources, and monitor demographic changes. The upcoming census will be conducted in two phases: house listing in 2026 and population enumeration in early 2027, with March 1, 2027, as the reference date for most of the country. Snow-bound regions, including Ladakh and parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, will use October 1, 2026, as their reference date.

The exercise marks a major shift to a digital census, which is expected to accelerate data processing compared with previous rounds. Historically, India’s census exercises have followed a similar pattern: provisional data is released shortly after enumeration, followed by final figures months later. In 2011, for example, population enumeration took place in February, provisional figures were released in March, and final numbers were published in May 2013, with religious demographic data following in August 2015. Earlier censuses, including those in 1991 and 2001, followed comparable timelines.

Population projections for 2027 currently stand at 143.4 crore. However, past trends suggest that official projections have consistently underestimated actual population figures. Census data shows that projections fell short by 1.7 percent in 1981, 1.1–1.6 percent in 1991 and 2001, and 1.6 percent in 2011, when India’s population reached 121.1 crore compared with a projected 119.3 crore. Analysts note that if this historical trend continues, the country’s population in 2027 could exceed the projected 143 crore.

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Fertility trends also support this possibility. Government projections estimated the total fertility rate (TFR) at 2.13 during 2016–2020, declining to 1.94 from 2021 onwards. Actual fertility, however, averaged 2.16 during 2016–2020 and fell only slightly below estimates in 2023 at 1.9, indicating that population growth may remain slightly higher than anticipated.

The upcoming Census 2027 is also expected to be the most expensive on a per capita basis. The exercise has been approved at a total cost of Rs 11,718.24 crore, translating to Rs 82 per person, compared with Rs 18 per capita in 2011 and Rs 64 estimated for the postponed 2021 census. Even after adjusting for the Socio-Economic and Caste Census, the cost per person is still approximately 40 percent higher than previous exercises.

With its digital rollout and accelerated timeline, Census 2027 is expected to provide faster and more precise demographic data, helping the government track population shifts, plan resources efficiently, and better understand India’s evolving socio-economic landscape.

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