Thackeray Cousins’ Alliance Eyes BMC 2026, But Vote Math Poses Major Test
Uddhav-Raj reunite to challenge Mahayuti in BMC battle.
The newly formed alliance between Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) aims to consolidate Marathi votes ahead of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections scheduled for January 15, 2026. To secure a strong performance and potentially win a significant number of the 227 seats, the Thackerays must replicate the Maha Vikas Aghadi's success in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in Mumbai, where substantial support from Muslim and Dalit communities played a pivotal role.
In the 2024 general elections, Shiv Sena (UBT) captured three out of six Lok Sabha seats in Mumbai, with assistance from Congress's traditional voter base among Muslims and Dalits, as well as supporters of Sharad Pawar's faction residing in the city. This coalition effectively limited the BJP and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena to one seat each in the financial capital, demonstrating the potential impact of unified opposition votes.
However, challenges persist for the Thackeray alliance, as Congress has declined to join due to disagreements over seat allocation and concerns regarding Raj Thackeray's past stance on North Indian migrants, which could alienate the party's North Indian supporters in Mumbai. While MNS commands approximately seven percent vote share, this addition helps bridge some gaps left by the absence of Congress and losses to Shinde's faction, though analysts note a remaining shortfall of around six percent.
Also Read: Uddhav and Raj Thackeray to Announce Historic Alliance on December 24
The Thackerays will need to intensify efforts through extensive public rallies, robust ground-level mobilization, and effective resource deployment to sway undecided voters and consolidate Marathi support. Without these measures, repeating the Lok Sabha template may prove difficult, especially if Muslim and Dalit votes fragment among Congress, NCP (SP), Samajwadi Party, MIM, and other opposition entities.
On the other side, the ruling Mahayuti alliance, comprising BJP with its solid 27 percent vote share and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena expected to draw at least five percent, appears confident. Backed by strong performances in recent assembly segments—where Shinde's faction won six and BJP secured 15 in Mumbai—the coalition benefits from an undivided Gujarati, Marwari, and North Indian voter base, positioning it favorably for a potential historic victory in this high-stakes contest for Asia's largest civic body.
Also Read: Uddhav and Raj Thackeray to Announce Historic Alliance on December 24
