Monsoon Rainfall Deficit Narrows From 38% to 15% In A Week

India’s Southwest Monsoon has gained significant momentum despite concerns over El Nino, reducing the country’s rainfall deficit from 38 per cent to 15 per cent within a week. Heavy rainfall across western and central India has helped narrow the shortfall sharply after a weak start to the monsoon season.

Mumbai, Pune and several other parts of Maharashtra have received exceptionally heavy rainfall in recent days. According to the Regional Meteorological Centre, Mumbai’s Colaba area recorded 1,383.8 mm of rainfall between June 1 and July 8, which was 78.4 per cent above normal. Santacruz received 1,530.2 mm during the same period, 94.4 per cent higher than the average.

The improvement has extended beyond Maharashtra, with increased rainfall reported across Gujarat, the Konkan and Goa region, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Odisha. According to the India Meteorological Department, nationwide rainfall was 38 per cent below average between June 1 and July 1, but the deficit narrowed by 23 percentage points as the monsoon strengthened over the following week.

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The stronger monsoon activity comes amid concerns that El Nino conditions could negatively affect rainfall during the season. Former India Meteorological Department Director General KJ Ramesh said El Nino does not necessarily influence rainfall throughout the entire monsoon and that other weather systems can temporarily offset its effects during active phases.

Ramesh said warming in both the Arabian Sea and the equatorial Indian Ocean has increased evaporation and strengthened the flow of moisture towards India. He added that a mid-tropospheric cyclone formed due to a Western Disturbance while a depression developed over the Bay of Bengal, with the two systems reinforcing each other and producing widespread rainfall.

The interaction of these weather systems brought significant rain across a broad region stretching from Gujarat, Goa and Maharashtra to Odisha. According to Ramesh, the conditions effectively offset the impact of El Nino during the recent active phase and helped reduce the national rainfall deficit by 23 percentage points in just one week.

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