Monsoon 2026 Ends "Normal" on Paper But Leaves Meghalaya, Punjab and Kerala Parched

India’s 2026 southwest monsoon season has been marked by sharp regional contrasts, prolonged dry spells and episodes of intense rainfall, making the national rainfall average an incomplete picture of the season. From June 4 to September 26, India recorded 749.2 mm of rainfall against a normal 853.4 mm, a 12 per cent deficit, according to India Meteorological Department data. While this remains within the IMD’s broad normal range, the distribution of rainfall varied significantly across regions and states.

The season began on a weak note, with June receiving less rainfall than usual, before activity increased in July as low-pressure systems developed over the Bay of Bengal and brought heavy rain to parts of eastern and central India. However, the recovery was uneven and did not extend across the country. IMD scientist Akhil Srivastava described the season as one characterised by dry spells interrupted by intense rainfall events. Several weather systems repeatedly affected particular areas while neighbouring regions continued to experience rainfall deficits.

The regional figures highlight the disparity. East and Northeast India recorded 1,008.1 mm against a normal 1,337.9 mm, a 25 per cent shortfall, while South Peninsular India was 23 per cent below normal and Northwest India 9 per cent short. Central India was closer to normal, with a deficit of just 1 per cent. At the state level, Meghalaya recorded a 60 per cent shortfall, while Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh were down 44 per cent and 43 per cent respectively. Punjab recorded a 42 per cent deficit, while Kerala, Karnataka and Goa were 27 per cent, 29 per cent and 33 per cent below normal. Odisha, however, received 31 per cent more rainfall than normal.

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Experts said the concentration of Bay of Bengal weather systems helped produce this uneven pattern. Mahesh Pahlawat of Skymet said several systems repeatedly moved towards Odisha and Vidarbha instead of distributing rainfall more widely. Geography also played a role, with hills and mountains creating natural differences between areas that receive moisture and those that remain relatively dry. Srivastava said dry, sinking air associated with El Nino further suppressed cloud formation and moisture transport in some areas. Overall, 14 states and Union Territories covering about 36 per cent of India’s land area were in the deficient category, while 19 covering about 57 per cent were in the normal category.

The strength and movement of Bay of Bengal systems also affected the season. Dr Kaagita Venkatramana of TERI said roughly the usual number of systems formed, but many remained weak and lost strength soon after making landfall. The monsoon trough, which helps carry rainfall across the country, also failed to remain established for long periods. As a result, storm tracks remained concentrated over central India and nearby areas, including Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, while parts of northwest India received less moisture. A recent deep depression helped reduce the overall rainfall deficit, although experts said the season could still finish with a deficit of around 11 per cent.

Beyond the total rainfall, the timing and intensity of precipitation became another defining feature of the 2026 monsoon. Assam, for example, recorded a 26 per cent deficit but still experienced flooding because much of its rainfall arrived in short, intense episodes. Experts linked the growing concentration of rainfall to a warmer atmosphere, which can hold more moisture before releasing it in heavy bursts. El Nino, a largely neutral Indian Ocean Dipole and fluctuations in the Madden-Julian Oscillation also influenced rainfall patterns. Together, these factors meant that India’s season may appear close to normal in national statistics while producing very different conditions across individual regions.

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