India’s Nuclear Capability: The Role Of Long-Range Missiles In Strategic Deterrence
India’s strategic forces rely on multiple nuclear delivery systems.
A new assessment by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BAS) estimates that India may have assembled up to 190 nuclear warheads as the country continues to modernise its nuclear arsenal. The report, authored by Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns and Mackenzie Knight-Boyle, says India is developing and fielding a range of systems intended to support its nuclear deterrent. The assessment also notes that India does not publicly disclose the size of its nuclear stockpile or the detailed operational status of its weapons.
According to the assessment, India currently operates nuclear-capable systems across three broad categories — aircraft, land-based ballistic missiles and submarine-based systems. Together, these elements form what the authors describe as an emerging operational nuclear triad. The report estimates that India's existing operational forces could deliver more than 160 nuclear warheads, while additional warheads have been produced for newer systems that are still being introduced.
India's nuclear-capable aircraft fleet remains an important part of its deterrent, with the Mirage 2000 and Jaguar identified in the assessment as aircraft associated with nuclear missions. The report also discusses the possible future role of newer aircraft as older platforms are gradually replaced. At the same time, India's indigenous missile programme has expanded considerably over several decades, with the Agni family forming a central component of its land-based strategic forces.
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The sea-based component of India's nuclear deterrent has also expanded. The BAS assessment records the reported commissioning of INS Aridhaman, India's third indigenously developed nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, in April 2026. It joins INS Arihant and INS Arighaat, strengthening the country's ability to maintain a survivable retaliatory capability. The report says additional submarines and newer submarine-launched missile systems are also being developed.
The assessment places these developments within India's longstanding nuclear doctrine, which has historically emphasised a no-first-use policy and the ability to retaliate following a nuclear attack. The authors note that India's nuclear strategy has evolved alongside the expansion of its delivery systems, while stressing that important details remain uncertain because the government does not publish comprehensive information about its arsenal.
Overall, the BAS assessment portrays India as continuing to develop a diversified nuclear deterrent while maintaining considerable secrecy around its capabilities. The report says the country's nuclear forces are likely to expand further as newer aircraft, missiles and submarines enter service. Its estimates are based on publicly available government information, satellite imagery, defence reporting and other open sources, meaning that the precise size and composition of India's arsenal remain subject to uncertainty.
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