IMD Forecasts Above-Normal Heatwaves And Warmer Nights Across India In May
IMD forecasts warmer nights and increased heatwave days across India in May due to climate factors.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast warmer nights, relatively cooler daytime temperatures, and above-normal heatwave conditions across several parts of the country in its monthly outlook for May 2026. The advisory comes amid growing concerns over climate variability and increasing temperature extremes during the pre-monsoon season.
According to the IMD, the number of heatwave days in May is likely to exceed the normal range by 1 to 4 days in affected regions. Typically, different meteorological divisions in India experience around 3 to 5 heatwave days during this period. The agency has identified the foothills of the Himalayas, eastern coastal states, as well as parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra, as areas likely to see higher-than-usual heatwave activity.
Despite the heatwave warning, the IMD has also indicated that daytime maximum temperatures may remain near or even below normal in many regions. This is largely due to the likelihood of above-normal pre-monsoon rainfall, which can temporarily suppress daytime heating. However, the same cloud cover associated with rainfall is expected to trap heat during the night, resulting in warmer-than-usual minimum temperatures.
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Explaining the phenomenon, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that increased cloud formation due to higher rainfall chances contributes to warmer nights. He also noted that climate change is playing a significant role in the rising frequency and intensity of temperature extremes across India. Additionally, the agency has flagged the possibility of cyclonic circulation over the Southeast Bay of Bengal, which could further enhance rainfall activity during May.
The forecast also highlights regional variations in heatwave risks. States such as Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, northern Uttar Pradesh, and parts of Bihar in the Himalayan foothills, along with coastal regions of Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu, and western states like Gujarat and Maharashtra, are expected to witness above-normal heatwave days. These conditions pose increased health risks, especially for vulnerable groups including the elderly, children, and individuals with pre-existing medical conditions.
The IMD has also linked the rising heatwave frequency to broader ocean-atmosphere patterns, including a possible shift towards El Niño conditions during the monsoon season. El Niño, characterized by warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is often associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India, raising concerns for agriculture. The agency noted that April 2026 itself recorded multiple heatwave days across several regions, underscoring the intensifying trend of extreme weather events in recent years.
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