IMD Forecasts 92 Percent of Normal Rainfall For Monsoon 2026
IMD forecasts a weaker monsoon but says there is no immediate cause for concern.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a below-normal monsoon for 2026, estimating that the country may receive around 92% of its long-period average rainfall during the June–September season. While the projection marks the lowest all-India monsoon forecast issued by the IMD in the past two decades, experts have cautioned that it does not automatically indicate a drought-like situation or immediate cause for alarm.
The monsoon announcement, released as part of IMD’s first long-range forecast of the season, is closely watched each year due to its significant economic and social impact. The four-month monsoon period contributes more than 70% of India’s annual rainfall and plays a crucial role in agriculture, water availability, and overall economic activity across rural and urban regions.
According to the IMD, this year’s projection follows seven consecutive years of relatively favourable rainfall conditions across the country. The forecast suggests a possible moderation in rainfall levels, signalling a return to more variable monsoon behaviour after an extended period of above-average or normal precipitation patterns.
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Despite the “below normal” label, meteorological experts have emphasised that India’s growing resilience to monsoon fluctuations has reduced the risk of severe disruption. Improved irrigation infrastructure, better reservoir management, and advancements in weather forecasting have helped cushion the impact of uneven rainfall distribution in recent years.
The IMD has also significantly enhanced its prediction models, allowing for more accurate seasonal forecasts compared to earlier decades. These improvements enable governments and farmers to make better-informed decisions in advance, reducing uncertainty and mitigating potential risks associated with weaker rainfall patterns.
However, experts note that regional variations remain a key factor, as monsoon performance can differ widely across states even in a below-normal year. While the national average may dip, some regions could still receive adequate or even above-normal rainfall, depending on evolving atmospheric conditions during the season.
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