After Warmest February in a Decade, J&K Braces for Winter Return From March 15
Two back-to-back Western disturbances expected to bring rain and snowfall across J&K.
After experiencing the warmest February in a decade, Jammu and Kashmir is set to face a week of winter-like conditions from March 15 to 20, according to independent weather forecaster Aadil Maqbool. The return of cold weather is attributed to two back-to-back Western disturbances expected to sweep across the region, bringing rain to the plains and snowfall in higher altitudes. Temperatures are predicted to drop noticeably due to cloud cover and precipitation, signalling a temporary reversal from the unusually warm conditions seen in February and early March.
The unusual warmth earlier this year triggered early almond and tulip blooms across the valley, with the Badawari almond garden opening ahead of schedule and the Tulip Garden set to welcome visitors on March 15, nearly ten days earlier than usual. Experts have highlighted that these early blooms are a result of the higher-than-normal temperatures that marked one of the warmest winters in recent memory.
Jammu and Kashmir has now recorded its seventh consecutive winter rainfall deficit, with cumulative precipitation from December 2025 to February 2026 reaching only 100.6 mm against the normal 284.9 mm, a 65 per cent shortfall. The exceptionally dry February, which saw rainfall collapse by nearly 90 per cent, contributed significantly to this deficit. Meteorologists warn that recurring winter shortfalls weaken the snowpack, reducing the natural meltwater buffer essential for agriculture and water supply during late spring and summer.
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Residents and authorities are bracing for the upcoming winter-like spell, while scientists and local officials continue to monitor both the impact on agriculture and tourism. The combination of early spring blooms and the impending cold wave reflects the region’s increasingly erratic weather patterns, underscoring concerns about climate variability and its effects on Jammu and Kashmir’s ecological and socio-economic systems.
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