Is Russia Arming China for Taiwan Takeover?

A shocking report from a top London think tank has revealed that Russia is secretly supplying China with advanced military equipment and expertise, potentially setting the stage for a bold airborne invasion of Taiwan. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) analyzed nearly 800 pages of leaked Russian documents obtained from the enigmatic Black Moon hacktivist group, known for opposing aggressive state policies.

While some documents were previously released online, RUSI shared select portions with The Associated Press, noting their apparent authenticity despite possible alterations and the inability to independently verify them.

The documents outline high-level meetings between Russian and Chinese delegations, including visits to Moscow, and detail timelines for payments and deliveries of sophisticated high-altitude parachute systems and amphibious assault vehicles. Evidence suggests Russia has begun production, though there’s no direct confirmation of Chinese payments or received goods.

RUSI analysts argue this deal could significantly boost China’s capabilities for a potential Taiwan invasion, aligning with Beijing’s broader military modernization under President Xi Jinping, aiming for a “world-class” force by 2050.

High-ranking U.S. officials have warned that Xi may have tasked his military with readiness for a Taiwan operation by 2027, as China claims the self-governing island as its own and keeps force on the table. While the documents don’t explicitly mention Taiwan, RUSI’s analysis highlights how Russia’s parachute technology could accelerate China’s airborne capabilities by 10 to 15 years, according to co-author Oleksandr Danylyuk. Neither the Kremlin, China’s defense or foreign ministries, nor Taiwan’s authorities have responded to requests for comment.

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The deal’s biggest value for China lies in Russia’s combat-honed command and control tactics for paratroopers, an area where Beijing lacks experience, per Danylyuk and co-author Jack Watling. Although China’s military outmuscles Russia’s in many ways, Moscow’s battle-tested airborne expertise fills critical gaps. Beijing-based commentator Song Zhongping noted that while China boasts superior equipment, Russia’s real-world combat experience is unmatched, with joint drills showing both nations learning from each other’s strengths.

A September 2024 document traces the agreement to April 2021, with initial phases like technical specifications and manufacturing already completed. Russia has committed to training in China and equipping a full airborne battalion, including stealth infiltration capabilities. The package includes 37 light amphibious assault vehicles, 11 anti-tank guns, 11 armored personnel carriers, and command vehicles, totaling over $210 million, with China demanding its own communication systems and ammunition compatibility.

Central to the deal are Russia’s Dalnolyot parachute systems, designed to drop 190 kg from extreme altitudes. A March 2024 meeting in Moscow confirmed Russia would provide cold-weather performance data by year’s end, covering temperatures down to -60°C. China requested tests for drops from 8,000 meters, enabling glides up to 80 km—ideal for covert special forces insertions, RUSI notes. Danylyuk suggested this could enable a “phase zero” operation, sneaking equipment and troops into Taiwan from outside its airspace.

Despite Russia’s storied airborne history, its paratroopers flopped in Ukraine in 2022, failing to secure key airfields like Hostomel, turning Moscow’s hoped-for quick win into a prolonged war. Danylyuk argues Russia can still sell this invasion-specific gear to China, as it’s irrelevant to its current Ukraine operations. For China, the challenge is to succeed where Russia failed: neutralize Taiwan’s air defenses and land enough forces to overpower its military before it mobilizes. RUSI suggests airdropping armored vehicles onto strategic sites like golf courses near ports to clear paths for amphibious landings.

The Russia-China military tie-up could bankroll Moscow’s Ukraine war while possibly baiting the U.S. into a Pacific conflict, diverting attention from Europe. As tensions simmer, these leaked documents cast a chilling light on a potential escalation in the Taiwan Strait.

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