Iran’s Resilience Poses Major Obstacle to Trump’s Quick War Victory

US President Donald Trump has publicly discussed victory in the ongoing conflict with Iran, at times declaring the campaign “won,” while also insisting that the war is “not finished yet” and that Tehran must surrender unconditionally. Analysts caution that achieving a formal end to the conflict may be far more complex than these statements suggest, as Iran shows no indication of yielding.

The early targeting of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was intended to destabilize the regime and accelerate the conflict’s conclusion. Instead, it appears to have strengthened Tehran’s resolve. Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, has emerged as the new supreme leader, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seems determined to avenge the killing of its commanders, reinforcing national unity in the face of external attacks.

While US and Israeli air strikes have inflicted substantial damage on Iran’s military infrastructure, experts note that air power alone rarely forces a determined government to surrender. Historical examples from Iraq and Afghanistan show that even significant military victories do not automatically translate into lasting political outcomes. Iran’s strategy may rely not on defeating the United States militarily, but on enduring the assault and maintaining operational capability.

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Iran has already adjusted its tactics to make a rapid resolution less likely. Missile strikes on Israel, harassment of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and continued drone attacks demonstrate that Tehran can impose costs without engaging in direct, large-scale confrontation. Even limited attacks can have major economic and psychological effects, raising the stakes for Washington and its allies.

The prolonged nature of the conflict presents challenges for the United States. Extended military operations strain resources, increase casualties, and could become politically contentious at home, especially with midterm elections approaching. Trump’s public statements about potentially ending the war may signal to Iran that endurance could yield leverage in negotiations.

Despite the early intensity of the conflict, a negotiated or de-escalated outcome remains possible. Quiet diplomacy or mutual exhaustion could lead both sides to step back, allowing each to claim victory. However, the underlying strategic rivalry between Iran, the United States, and Israel is unlikely to be resolved. Military actions may weaken Tehran’s capabilities, but changing its fundamental behaviour will remain an uphill challenge for Washington.

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