BJP to Sweep Assam with 102 Seats, 50% Vote Share: Today's Chanakya Exit Poll

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set for a sweeping victory in Assam, according to the Today’s Chanakya exit poll released on Thursday after voting concluded in the state assembly elections. The survey projected the NDA to secure 102 seats, with a possible margin of error of nine seats, in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly. The alliance was also estimated to receive around 50 per cent vote share, with a three-percentage-point margin.

If the projection holds true, the result would pave the way for the BJP and its allies to form a third consecutive government in Assam, strengthening the party’s hold over the politically significant northeastern state. The BJP first came to power in Assam in 2016 and retained control in the subsequent election, marking a major shift in a region once dominated by the Congress.

The Today’s Chanakya poll estimated the Congress-led opposition alliance at 23 seats, also with a margin of nine seats. Its projected vote share stood at 38 per cent, with a similar three-point margin. The figures suggest that while the opposition may retain a substantial voter base, it could struggle to convert votes into seats under the first-past-the-post electoral system.

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An aggregate of multiple surveys, referred to as the Poll of Exit Polls, offered a slightly narrower margin but still forecast a comfortable NDA victory. That combined estimate predicted 92 seats for the NDA and 28 seats for the Congress-led bloc. Official results, however, will only be confirmed when the Election Commission begins counting votes, and exit polls have historically shown mixed accuracy across Indian state elections.

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