Pinarayi Vijayan Leads Kerala CM Preference at 33%, Shashi Tharoor Ranks 10th: Axis Poll

An Axis My India exit poll has projected a Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) victory in the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections and also mapped public preferences for the state’s next chief minister. According to the survey, the UDF is expected to win between 78 and 90 seats, while the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) may secure between 49 and 62 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA is projected to win between 0 and 3 seats in the 140-member assembly.

The poll has intensified political discussion over leadership in the event of a change in government. While Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has expressed confidence about returning for a third consecutive term, the survey suggests voters remain divided over the preferred face for the top post. Kerala recorded a voter turnout of more than 78 per cent, higher than the turnout seen in the 2021 state elections, indicating strong public participation.

In the chief minister preference chart released by Axis In my India, incumbent Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan emerged as the top choice with 33 per cent support. Vijayan is contesting from Dharmadom and remains the most recognisable political figure in the state. His lead in the popularity rankings suggests that even if the LDF underperforms electorally, his personal appeal continues to hold significant weight among voters.

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Leader of the Opposition V.D. Satheesan ranked second with 21 per cent support. Satheesan, contesting from Paravur, has been one of the principal campaign faces for the Congress-led alliance. Around 11 percent of respondents said they would prefer any candidate from the UDF, while 9 percent indicated support for any NDA nominee for the chief minister’s position.

Senior Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala received 8 per cent backing, while 5 per cent said they would support any LDF candidate. BJP leader Rajeev Chandrasekhar, who is contesting from Nemom, secured 4 per cent support. Congress leader K.C. Venugopal received 3 per cent, while another 3 per cent of respondents either backed other names or remained undecided.

Former Health Minister K.K. Shailaja received 2 per cent support in the survey. Congress MP Shashi Tharoor, whose name often features in national leadership discussions, was placed tenth in the ranking with 1 percent support. The official results of the Kerala Assembly elections are scheduled to be announced on May 4, when it will become clear whether the exit poll projections translate into electoral reality.

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