Festive Trade to Exceed ₹5 Lakh Crore as Offline Sales Surge, Says Traders’ Body CAIT

The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), a prominent national body representing over 70 million traders, projected that India's festive season commerce will surpass a historic Rs 5 lakh crore mark, driven by a robust resurgence in offline retail sales. This optimistic forecast comes amid the ongoing Diwali celebrations, with traditional brick-and-mortar markets drawing massive crowds and outpacing e-commerce platforms, which have seen a notable dip. CAIT attributed the boom to government initiatives promoting domestic manufacturing and recent Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate cuts on essential festive items, fostering a "Swadeshi" ethos that prioritises Indian-made products. As the festival of lights unfolds, the surge underscores a shift toward experiential shopping, where consumers favour the tactile allure of physical stores over digital convenience.

Central to this year's festivities is CAIT's nationwide "Swadeshi Indian Diwali" campaign, launched under the banner "Bhartiya Samaan -- Hamara Swabhiman" (Indian Goods -- Our Pride), inspired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's advocacy for self-reliance. Praveen Khandelwal, CAIT Secretary General and Member of Parliament from Chandni Chowk, highlighted how these efforts have galvanised traders and buyers alike, injecting fresh vitality into the economy. "This year's Diwali is expected to generate festive sales exceeding ₹5 lakh crore, which will significantly boost liquidity flow, strengthen trade, and inject new enthusiasm into the consumer market," Khandelwal stated.

Complementing this, the Modi government's GST reductions on categories like apparel and electronics have empowered local vendors, while CAIT's ongoing "Boycott Chinese Goods" drive—initiated in 2021—has effectively sidelined imports, particularly from China, from market shelves. This collective push aligns with the Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-Reliant India) vision, transforming Diwali into a symbol of economic nationalism.

Offline markets, from bustling bazaars in Delhi's Chandni Chowk to vibrant souks in Mumbai and Kolkata, are teeming with shoppers, marking a decisive rebound from pandemic-era online dominance. Key product segments fuelling the growth include sweets and dry fruits, readymade garments, consumer durables like mobiles and refrigerators, automobiles, jewellery, and decorative items such as earthen diyas and lighting products. Ancillary sectors like transportation, logistics, catering, and hospitality are also reaping benefits, with event management and beauty services reporting heightened demand. The preference for "touch and feel" experiences has not only thrilled traders but also set a new precedent for festive commerce, contrasting sharply with the slowdown in online sales amid logistical challenges and a conscious pivot to local sourcing.

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As India confirms Diwali celebrations on October 20 across major cities like Ayodhya and Varanasi—resolving earlier calendar ambiguities—CAIT emphasised the festival's dual role as a cultural and economic catalyst. Acharya Durgesh Tare, Chairman of CAIT's Veda and Astrology Committee from Ujjain, advised optimal timings for Mahalakshmi Puja between 1:38 PM and 7:30 PM and 10:38 PM and 12:11 AM, enhancing the spiritual dimension.

Khandelwal concluded that under PM Modi's leadership, this Diwali heralds a resurgent trading community, poised to illuminate pathways toward sustainable growth and reduced import dependency. With such projections, the 2025 festive season could redefine India's retail landscape, blending tradition with economic empowerment.

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