Australia Remains Outright Favourite for Ashes Despite Aging, Thinning Squad

Australia will field what many regard as their oldest and thinnest Ashes squad in 15 years when the 2025-26 series begins at Perth Stadium on Friday, yet bookmakers and analysts still install them as clear favourites to retain the urn. With only one player under 30 (Cameron Green) in the likely XI and key pillars like Usman Khawaja (38), Steve Smith (36), Mitchell Starc (35), Josh Hazlewood (34), and Nathan Lyon (37) all in the twilight of their careers, this feels like the final ride for the generation that has dominated home Ashes cricket since 2013. Pat Cummins will even miss the series opener with a back injury, handing the reins to stand-in Scott Boland. On paper, England have rarely arrived Down Under with a stronger or more settled side under Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum.

Yet the numbers refuse to lie. Since the turn of the millennium, Australia has lost just 13 per cent of home tests (99 wins, 18 defeats, 22 draws) and has dropped only one home Ashes series in the last quarter-century—the 3-2 epic of 2010-11. In the three most recent editions on Australian soil, the scorelines read 5-0, 4-0, and 4-0. England has not won a live Ashes Test in Australia since January 2011. Even a squad showing visible wear and tear starts with that muscle memory, and a bowling attack is still capable of dismantling any batting lineup on bouncy, seaming decks.

The batting frailties are real: Marnus Labuschagne has averaged in the low 20s across his last two years of Test cricket, Khawaja’s century drought stretches back over two and a half years outside Galle, and Smith’s conversion rate has dipped alarmingly. But the bowling remains world-class. Starc, Hazlewood, Boland, and Lyon are backed by Cummins’ expected return from the second Test, while all-round options in Green and Beau Webster add depth. Lyon needs just two wickets to overtake Glenn McGrath as Australia’s second-highest Test wicket-taker, and Cummins already sits among the most lethal fast bowlers statistically in history.

Also Read: After First Title, RCB Stick With Their Champions and Trust the Same Core for 2026

The schedule plays into Australian hands too: a traditional Perth opener under blazing sun, a pink-ball Gabba Test where the hosts have never lost, followed by Adelaide, Melbourne, and Sydney—venues where the ageing core have closed out series with ruthless efficiency in recent cycles. England’s Bazball revolution has produced spectacular highs, but it has never been truly stress-tested across five tests in Australia’s backyard.

In short, this may be the most vulnerable Australian Ashes squad since the post-Ponting rebuild, but vulnerability is relative when your historical win rate at home is 71 per cent and your last three Ashes campaigns ended in whitewashes. England needs to rewrite a quarter-century of history; Australia simply needs to survive one last dance with their golden generation intact. The urn, as always, starts in Australian hands—and the numbers say it is likely to stay there.

Also Read: Shafali Verma Reveals What Truly Felt Great After Winning India’s First Women’s ICC Title